Well how ’bout it? Browns vs. Steelers at the midway point of the season for first place in the AFC North, just as everyone expected. Outside of the 2020 playoff game, I think this is the most meaningful matchup between the two I can remember (I was 6 during the 2002 game).

It’s weird to feel this excited about a game vs. the Browns, but even with a ton of flaws, they’ve fought hard to win games late and put themselves in this position. Pittsburgh has done the same, while simultaneously developing an identity, something they haven’t had since probably 2018.

The best part about it is the disdain between the two teams seems to be growing. Jared Verse is wild for talking all this smack, having seemingly done nothing at all this season, but regardless, it’s good for the NFL. Outside of Steelers-Ravens and Bears-Packers, there really isn’t much pure hatred on a personal level in NFL rivalries anymore, so it’s fun to see how quickly this battle has escalated.

Browns Preview

There’s no beating around the bush, Todd Monken has these boys playing hard, and I think a lot of that is due to his attitude and how he approaches coaching. He’s extremely passionate and coaches with a lot of fire, and you can tell the players like playing for him. Outside of Kevin Stefanski, I don’t think you can really say that about any Browns coach this century.

Still, the Browns have gotten each of their five wins by the skin of their teeth, relying on a late game-winning drive in each of them. Deshaun Watson seemingly plays like the Deshaun Watson we expect for three quarters, but has come up clutch when it matters most. He’s outside the top 15 in nearly every passing efficiency metric and struggles to push the ball downfield when his first read isn’t there. But he still excels out of structure, an area that could be the difference in this game.

The real story, though, is the Browns defense. They’re 11th in total defense, holding opponents on average to just over 200 yards passing per game. Denzel Ward is having a career year, and their rookie safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren is playing really good football. Carson Schwesinger has solidified himself as a top linebacker in the league, and they figure out a way to get to the quarterback, notching 20 sacks so far even with a bottom-half pressure percentage.

Steelers Preview

I picked the Steelers to lose last week, and even though it wasn’t the prettiest of wins, I’m glad I was wrong. Even though the game shouldn’t have been as close as it was, they continue to show they can win in a variety of ways, something that couldn’t be said about recent Steelers teams.

The biggest thing has been what I mentioned earlier: they finally have an identity. And their identity is where it matters most in football—up front. The offensive line has been rolling, and Pittsburgh’s 17th-ranked rushing offense is better than that. They sit at that spot only because they average the 4th-lowest attempts per game. Hopefully McCarthy stays true to his comments this week and continues to lean on the big fellas and top-5 (yes, you heard me) running back Jaylen Warren.

Similarly, Pittsburgh’s run defense has been arguably the best in the league over the last three weeks, allowing only 186 total yards on the ground in that span. And 39 of those came from late-game scrambles by Jalon Daniels. That’s all been without Derrick Harmon too. Hats off to Patrick Graham—the talent they have on the roster is finally starting to show. I’ll also tip my cap to Payton Wilson and Patrick Queen. Wilson has been probably the most improved player on the Steelers defense, and Queen has responded well to the criticism after his disastrous game against the Browns in Week 4.

Key Game Matchups

Man Beaters

Simply put, the difference in the first matchup was Pittsburgh’s inability to beat the Browns’ man-to-man coverage. It’s really been an issue in almost every game the Steelers have played. They just don’t have guys who can separate and win in one-on-one matchups. We even saw it last week—the Saints play man at the 11th-lowest rate in the league, but went man against the Steelers even with guys who aren’t the best in coverage.

It didn’t really matter, though, because the Steelers were still able to have success running the ball. The Browns have a much better front and much better linebackers, and Ward and Tyson Campbell are near the top of the league at what they do, which frees everyone else up to focus on stopping the run.

The Browns play man (42.4% of the time) more than everyone else in the league by a wide margin (second is the Patriots at 30.8%), and it’s been working. First and foremost for the Steelers is to not bail on the run game. Too often in the first game against Cleveland, Pittsburgh would immediately pass the ball twice if a first-down run didn’t have much success. They need to stick with it, grind it out, and wear them down. 20+ touches for Jaylen Warren in this game is a must—force the Browns to tackle him as much as possible. Odds are they get better as the game goes on, which will then open up play action.

Pittsburgh also needs to get more creative—don’t just rely on a guy to go out and win one-on-one. Bunch sets to create leverage, drag routes, pick and rub concepts, and a lot of pre-snap motion. Keep the defense on their toes rather than just running the same flare routes, quick outs, and go balls. I’d also like to see Pittsburgh elevate Marquez Valdez-Scantling in this game. Roman Wilson had success in the last matchup winning in the slot vertically with speed, and Pittsburgh needs that threat again to keep the safeties from flying downhill.

Red Zone Success

This will more or less probably decide this game. Pittsburgh has the 4th-lowest red zone touchdown rate and Cleveland the 5th-lowest. Both teams’ success in the red zone jumps significantly when playing at home, so Pittsburgh at least has the advantage there.

For both teams, the answer seems pretty simple. For Cleveland, it’s finding tight end Harold Fannin Jr. So far this year, he has three catches on three targets for three touchdowns in the red zone. He’s an athletic freak who can get open or win contested catches. It’s just a matter of whether Deshaun Watson can find him.

As for Pittsburgh, it’s two words—Jaylen Warren. The Steelers have thrown the ball 8 times out of 9 plays when inside the five. That’s probably my biggest criticism of McCarthy, or maybe Rodgers, to this point. I don’t know if they’re trying to get Rodgers more touchdowns or what, but it’s honestly borderline play-calling malpractice.

As you can see, thanks to Hayden Winks, Pittsburgh is the best short-yardage rushing team in the NFL. Give the ball to your best offensive player behind a good offensive line when you’re close to the end zone. It’s as simple as that.

Betting

Pittsburgh is currently 3.5 point favorites per DraftKings Sportsbook, with the O/U at 38.5. If I’m being honest I’m a bit surprised Pittsburgh is favored by more than a field goal in this one given the stakes. Some bets I like:

• Jaylen Warren OVER 24.5 Rec Yards (-108)
  • This is one of those fishy lines where Vegas must know something we don’t know. Warren has hit this easily his last five games, and it’s hard to see it not hitting again. He’s essentially their third receiver and will get at minimum 3-4 designed targets a game.
• KC Concepcion OVER 47.5 Rec Yards (-109)
  • Pittsburgh has shown no signs of stopping their soft zone. That means the underneath stuff will continue to be open, and Concepcion is a really good player who continues to get better week by week.
• Deshaun Watson OVER 0.5 Interceptions (+108)
  • He threw one in the last matchup and I expect it to happen again. Per FantasyPtsData, Watson has 8 turnover worthy throws but only 1 interception on those throws. He’s due, especially against what should be an awesome Heinz Field crowd.
• Chris Boswell (-141) and Andrew Szmyt (+104) OVER 1.5 FGM
  • I mentioned red zone success as a key, but that doesn’t mean things will change. You expect this to be pretty? It’s AFC North football.

Game Prediction

I won’t lie, I don’t remember the last time I was this excited for a Steelers regular season game. Between the Steelers possibly looking like an above-average football, the Browns coming out of no where and talking shit, and first place in the division on the line – this is the reason we watch the games.

I also don’t know the last time I’ve wanted the Steelers to win a regular season game this badly. I want to put the Browns back in their place, shut up their fans, sit at 6-2 going into the bye and get healthy for a tougher back half of the schedule. My preference would be to absolutely dominate and put the league on notice, but we know that won’t happen.

I normally have a pretty good gauge on what’s going to happen in a Steelers game, but I’m pretty stumped with this one. This could go a multitude of ways, both good and bad, and I don’t know what it’s going to be. The Browns are such a well-coached team for the first time ever it’s hard to predict how they’ll perform.

Since I don’t really have a confident prediction on this one, I’m gonna go out on a limb and say we get a vintage Aaron Rodgers game. The last time these two teams played we got the memorable “asshole” comment from McCarthy to Rodgers when trying to get a play in, but this time around I think Rodgers just takes things into his own hands.

Pittsburgh for whatever reason will struggle to run the ball early. I think we’ll get a lot of three and outs from both teams in the first half, and points will be at a premium. Rodgers will get tired of that in the second half and start to run the show – come out in hurry up and pepper the Browns over the middle, mixing in the flares to Jaylen Warren in space that have been effective.

Once he gets into a rhythm things will start to open up, and that deep shot Rodgers missed to DK in the first game will be a bucket in this one that opens up the scoring. Rodgers throws for two touchdowns and has his first 300 yard passing game as a Steeler.

Similar to Week 4, the Browns and Watson will have a chance to win it late in the game, but this time down by more than a field goal. They’ll move the ball into or close to the red zone, but the magic finally runs out, as DeShon Elliot picks off Watson in his second game back to seal it.

History tends to repeat itself. Right when the Browns start to get a little hope we stomp them into the dirt. Maybe that changes some day, but not tomorrow. 6-2. First place. Fuck the Browns.

Steelers 20, Browns 16

Here. We. Go.