We’re heading into Week 7, and the post-Big Ben era question still remains—are the Steelers actually good? The comeback last week was something we haven’t seen Pittsburgh do since 1992, and I don’t think it happens under a Tomlin team. At the same time, it was against a lowly Bucs team with an undrafted rookie quarterback.

We also don’t know if the Steelers have played a “good” team. The Falcons, Colts, and Bucs definitely aren’t, and the Patriots and the Browns have a lot of flaws, so maybe the Bengals? Regardless, the most important thing is making sure we don’t find out the answer to the question until after the bye when their schedule heats up, and that starts with beating the Saints in the first-ever game in Paris tomorrow.

Saints Preview

The Saints come in with a 2-4 record and are pretty much the definition of a fun bad team—an exciting offense with a horrible defense. Head coach Kellen Moore hasn’t gotten solid production out of Tyler Shough through the air, while defensive coordinator Brandon Staley continues to struggle in the NFL.

New Orleans is averaging the 20th-most yards per game on offense (one spot ahead of Pittsburgh); however, that average is being pulled down due to an abysmal 142-total-yard performance against the Vikings. Chris Olave is 2nd in the NFL in receiving yards, and Shough isn’t afraid to make any throw (that isn’t over the middle of the field). Their run game is middle of the pack at 18th; however, they’re only averaging 3.8 yards per carry. The combination of Kendre Miller and an old Alvin Kamara isn’t much of a threat to anyone.

On defense, they’re allowing 378 yards per game, 29th in the league, and are giving up 5.8 yards per play. They’ve given up the third-most rushing yards and the most rushing touchdowns and have the 7th-most missed tackles. They blitz at the 11th-highest clip but have the 3rd-lowest pressure percentage. To put it bluntly, they really don’t have much going for them on that side of the ball.

Steelers Preview

Pittsburgh sits at 4-2 and is steadily (or should I say very slowly) keeping with the theme of last week’s article—improving. McCarthy and Rodgers are starting to get on the same page, and I’m liking what I’m seeing from Patrick Graham in terms of being more creative and putting guys in positions to succeed.

Offensively, they’re methodical—they don’t hit many big plays, but they’ve done a good job getting guys the ball in space, using the quick passing game as an extension of the run, and their offensive line continues to improve. I know McCarthy has a pass-heavy philosophy, but I’d like to see them run the ball more. They’re 10th in the league in yards per attempt on the ground (4.6) but only 17th in total yards because they’re bottom-five in attempts. In other words, feed Jaylen Warren.

Bigger strides have been made on defense—they’re now 7th in yards per game allowed and 4th in defensive EPA. The exciting part is they have so much room to improve even more. They’re still bottom-five in pressure rate and 2nd in the league in missed tackles, two things that can easily be fixed with all the talent they have. We need to see more from their three edge rushers—especially Watt—but I’m excited to see what the return of DeShon Elliott brings to the secondary.

Key Game Matchups

Under The Radar Run Game Bout

Apologies for the name of the header. I couldn’t figure out how to describe this, but I think there are some interesting points to be brought up here. I’ve already mentioned how the Saints have been bad at stopping the run, but there’s a big change in their lineup this week that could make a difference in slowing down a strong Steelers ground game.

That change is the return of linebacker Kaden Elliss from injury. He’s missed the last three games with a calf injury but should make a major difference for the Saints in stopping Jaylen Warren. Before going down with an injury in Week 3, Elliss was tied for 2nd in the league with 18 solo tackles without a miss, per PFF. You always have to take PFF stats with a grain of salt because his number of solo tackles recorded varies depending on where you look, but regardless, Elliss has been a very good player in recent years.

From 2023-2025 in Atlanta, he racked up 395 total tackles and is an exceptional athlete. He’s very solid in coverage and is an every-down player—he did not miss a defensive snap before his injury. Now, don’t get me wrong, I’d take Jaylen Warren one-on-one over just about everyone in the league not named Fred Warner, but he should provide a lot of support for a run defense coming off its best game of the season after holding the Giants to only 84 yards rushing.

The Steelers, on the other hand, are down another player up front on defense. Sebastian Joseph-Day was put on IR this week (triceps), and they’ve already been without Derrick Harmon. That means a hat for either rookie Kevin Jobity Jr.—who has yet to take an NFL snap—or Esezi Otomewo, who hasn’t been active yet this season. Otomewo was okay for the Steelers last year when he played but is far from the veteran presence Joseph-Day brings. It also means a big uptick in snaps for rookie Gabriel Rubio. Rubio has been awesome against the run but has shown basically nothing as a pass rusher.

How much of an impact will this have on the Steelers stopping the run? That remains to be seen, but they’ll need to be ready because even though they haven’t been good, the Saints still try—40 combined carries from Miller and Kamara the last two weeks—and Tyler Shough is an effective runner when he gets outside the pocket.

Opposite Olave

There’s absolutely no denying how awesome Chris Olave has been, and I’m happy for him. He went through a brutal two-year stretch with bad concussion issues, so it’s good to see him on the field. But that doesn’t mean I want to see him carve up the Steelers tomorrow.

Pittsburgh has their hands tied a bit with this matchup. Jamel Dean played a career game last week, and I’m so glad he’s healthy, but athletically he doesn’t match up well against Olave. If he does end up being his main defender, that would leave 6’5″ Devaughn Vele against a 5’10” Asante Samuel Jr. Don’t love that either.

I also don’t love the matchup if you were to switch those two—Samuel has shown flashes of being really good but also really bad, and that inconsistency will get him toasted against Olave. Perhaps that means more time for rookie Daylen Everette, who’s shown a lot of promise thus far. But do you really want a rookie on Olave?

There really isn’t a great answer—ideally, he’s doubled a lot, but you also can’t expect DeShon Elliott to be fully back playing at the level he was last year. Their best option is probably continuing what they’ve been doing—sit back in their zone, give up everything underneath, and tighten up when the field shortens in the red zone. Pittsburgh’s offense should do enough in this game if New Orleans is held to field goals. Olave is the Saints’ only true form of offense—adopt the Belichick way and let someone else beat you.

Bets and Game Prediction

Pittsburgh is currently 3-point favorites, with the O/U at 44.5 (for a Steelers game? How about that!), per DraftKings Sportsbook. Some bets I like in this game:

• Germie Bernard OVER 6+ Receptions (+129)
  • Vegas is still sleeping on my boy huh? It’s easy to tell by now Bernard is a stud, he’s earned Rodgers’ trust, and they’re going to use him as an extension of the run game. McCarthy also just refuses to rely on the run game and forces passes.
• Chris Olave OVER 6.5 Receptions (+112)
  • I just talked about his matchup, and this should hit just on pure target volume. Pittsburgh is going to give up the 5-7 yard hitches on the sidelines all day, I wouldn’t be surprised if this hits before the 4th quarter.
• Pat Freiermuth OVER 32.5 Rec Yards (-111)
  • The Saints are horrendous against tight ends – they’ve allowed the 3rd-most yards and the 2nd-most receptions through six weeks. I expect a Muth bounce back this week.
• Pat Freiermuth OVER 3.5 Receptions (+113)
  • See above.
• Pat Freiermuth Anytime TD (+250)
  • This one is a double whammy this week. Not only is it National Tight Ends day tomorrow, it’s also Muth’s birthday. Good vibes all around.

Disclaimer: It’s going to take everything in my power not to take Jaylen Warren overs with how bad the Saints’ run defense is, but because of how much Dowdle we saw last week I probably won’t. Very frustrating, but it seems like it’s gonna stay about a 60-40 split if Dowdle is healthy.

Game Prediction

I’m not going to beat around the bush with this one. I don’t feel great about it. Pittsburgh is coming off an emotional comeback victory where it took just about everything they had to win. Couple that with the international aspect, the Steelers flying there late, and their canceled Friday practice, it just seems like a game where the Steelers come out looking completely unprepared.

But that’s how last week was, and it has been especially true for the Steelers’ defense all season. Excluding the defensive touchdown New England scored in Week 2, Pittsburgh’s defense has given up over double the amount of points (81) in the first half of games than they have in the second half of games (40). I’m not quite sure why that is, but given all the factors I just mentioned, I’d really like to see that change this week. Props to Patrick Graham for adjusting in-game, but you can’t come out flat against a desperate Saints team that is still in the mix for their division.

I’m also nervous about the look-ahead factor. There is no question the Browns game next week is looming large. In the grand scheme of things, that game means so much more than this one for the Steelers. I know they’re professionals, but the emotional impact of that loss was heavy, especially for the veterans.

Another big factor is Kellen Moore. He was the offensive coordinator under McCarthy in Dallas and knows McCarthy’s play-calling tendencies. That’s going to be a huge boost to the Saints defensively, especially with how stubborn McCarthy is in his ways. Hopefully, Rodgers takes the reins more often in this game based on what he sees.

I think this is going to be a field goal-off early on. I think both teams are going to move the ball with pretty good success but not be able to punch it into the end zone. As the game goes on, McCarthy’s unwillingness to hand the ball to Jaylen Warren will prove costly, with a Rodgers interception flipping the game late.

Pittsburgh will do a good job against Olave most of the game, but a fourth-quarter deep ball to him over a rusty Elliott will put the Saints up by a score. The Steelers will have a chance to answer, but the late-game magic we’ve seen from Rodgers this year doesn’t prevail this time. Steelers take a bad loss in Paris, and say au revoir to first place in the AFC North.

Saints 26, Steelers 20