The schedule release has become a bit watered down over the last few years and isn’t exciting as it used to be, but regardless it’s still cool to see the full scope of games the Steelers get to play. At first glance it seems like it’s going to be a similar ride as it was last year. First half the schedule is fairly soft, will a brutal back half against some of the league’s best teams. The NFL likely does this because based off history they expect the Steelers to be competing down the stretch, no matter how ugly the process, but as a Steelers fan it’s tough because you know come December they’re going to let you down.

I’ve done a schedule prediction every year for as long as I can remember, and though I don’t have proof I normally have a pretty good gauge on how the team will perform. These predictions will be under the assumption that Aaron Rodgers will be quarterbacking the team in 2025. If it’s a Rudolph/Howard combo the number of wins probably drops by two or three, but based on recent reports it seems like we should get a Rodgers decision soon. Similar view with their WR2 situation – these picks will be based off their current core, but it would be both frustrating and foolish not to add a proven player before the season.

Week 1: at New York Jets

Hat tip to the NFL here for kicking off the season with each QB, Rodgers and Fields, starting against their former team. I’m still a little sad we didn’t resign Fields, but the team has a chance to prove they made the right decision right off the bat. And I think they do.

On top of a new quarterback, the Jets have a new head coach, new OC and DC, and new GM. The Jets have always been a mess, and although I like Aaron Glenn I don’t expect them to be a high-powered offense, especially the first week of the season. They have a similar situation at receiver as the Steelers do, with basically no one behind Garrett Wilson. The O-Line is improved with the addition of Membou in the draft, but a rookie tackle against TJ Watt will probably prove to be the difference in the game. In a close game I think the Steelers defense dominates, the offense does enough, and they begin the season 1-0.

Final: Steelers 20, Jets 13

Week 2: vs Seattle

I am in the camp that Sam Darnold’s 2024 was really the brilliance of Kevin O’Connell and Justin Jefferson, and have a really hard time seeing him replicate what he did last year. Not saying it’s impossible, but people really forget how bad Darnold was everywhere else. JSN, Cooper Kupp, and Kenneth Walker won’t be easy to stop, but I think the still-fresh Steelers defense will contain them enough.

A revenge game for DK Metcalf, I think he has his first breakout game as a Steeler, hitting a couple big plays from Rodgers that put the Steelers over the top in this game. As usual it’ll be close, but behind a loud crowd in Rodger’s first home game it’s a 2-0 start for Pittsburgh.

Final: Steelers 24, Seahawks 20

Week 3: at New England

There’s not a more similar coach to Mike Tomlin than Mike Vrabel is, and we should see a much-improved Patriots team in 2025 behind Vrabel’s leadership and year two Drake Maye. It’s hard to imagine the defense not being stout, and the additions of Diggs, Treyveon Henderson, and Kyle Williams give Maye a good set of weapons.

I think both teams will be 2-0 coming into this game, and it’ll come down to who has more success on the ground. It’ll be difficult offensively for both, but Christian Gonzales shadowing Metcalf could really cause a lot of problems for the Steelers. Pittsburgh settles for a lot of Boswell field goals, and quickly the criticism of the offense begins again. 2-1.

Final: New England 17, Steelers 13

Week 4: vs Minnesota (Ireland)

I want to make the trip over the pond and be at this game because I think it’s a really cool opportunity, but at the same time I feel like the Steelers would ruin the trip for me. Kevin O’Connell is a top five coach, Justin Jefferson is a top two receiver, and Minnesota’s defense lead the league in takeaways last year. The x-factor in this game will be the play of rookie* quarterback JJ McCarthy. There’s not a ton of exciting tape from him at all, but Kevin O’Connell will make it easy for him early on.

Something about the Steelers playing in Ireland just doesn’t give me confidence. When the Steelers win they usually have to have everything go perfectly, and them traveling overseas and not having the home field advantage here makes things murky. A couple costly turnovers from the Steelers offense will have them playing catch-up, and although they make it close at the end they drop to 2-2.

Final: Minnesota 23, Steelers 20

Week 5: Bye

The early bye week sucks.

Week 6: vs Cleveland

The Browns quarterback room is truly remarkable, and being able to laugh at them is one of the few things Steelers fans have left. If I had to guess I think Flacco would still be starting, but who really knows with these guys (please be Pickett). There’s no doubt Diontae Johnson will want to show out, and the Browns run game will be improved, but QB is huge question mark and will determine the outcome of this game.

Whoever the Cleveland QB is the Steelers tend to always play the Browns well, and I don’t think that changes here. After the bye week the offense works out some kinks and Aaron Rodgers has his best game in Pittsburgh so far, throwing for three touchdowns. The Browns is the Browns. 3-2.

Final: Steelers 27, Browns 17

Week 7: at Cincinnati

Thursday Night Football on the road against Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase and Bengals. Those words don’t sound good for anyone, especially the Steelers. Their offense will once again be hope-to-contain, and it’s nearly impossible for them to be as bad as they were last year on defense again. If Trey Hendrickson is traded or still holding out by now that would be a major factor, but even then I still think the Bengals have too much on offense.

The Steelers will battle, and the offense will look solid again, but it’s hard to see them winning in a shootout. They did it last year, and it’s possible they do it again, but the short-week away game doesn’t give the Steelers enough time to prepare defensively and they drop back down to .500. 3-3.

Final: Bengals 30, Steelers 20

Week 8: vs Green Bay

Sunday Night Football in the ‘Burgh in throwback uniforms that will have the Steelers rocking yellow helmets and Aaron Rodgers facing off against his old team. This is the game I’m probably most excited for on the schedule, and I think Heinz Field will be electric. Matt LaFluer and Jordan Love are great combo and the Packers will be good again, and it’ll again be up to the Steelers defense to win this game.

With a less-than-ideal start to the season I think the Steelers come out hot in this game after extra rest and upset the Packers. Rodgers will make big plays down the stretch and Renegade will prove victorious again, as a late Jordan Love turnover costs the Packers the game. 4-3.

Final: Steelers 25, Packers 22

Week 9: vs Indianapolis

With the exception of Jonathan Taylor I really don’t see anything across the entire Colts team that would scare anyone. Whether it’s Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones shouldn’t matter – they’re both terrible and will struggle in this game on the road.

All the returning players will remember last year’s game, a game they should have one, and for once the Steelers actually dominate a team. This will be Jaylen Warren’s best game of the season to date, going for over a hundred on the ground and two touchdowns. 5-3.

Final: Steelers 31, Colts 13

Week 10: at Los Angeles Chargers

Sunday Night Football on the road in the west coast is not a good spot for Pittsburgh, but luckily for their crowds in Los Angeles normally make it home a game. The four H’s – Harbaugh, Herbert, Hampton, and Harris (Najee, TBD on Tre Harris) – will be in every single game they play this year. They’re too good at every level and will be an extremely difficult matchup for anyone.

That being said, I think the road-dog Tomlin narrative continues here. Rodgers will be finding his stride and makes it three straight games with multiple touchdown passes. The 41-year-old stuns the Chargers by picking up multiple first downs with his legs late, and Chris Boswell steals one on the road at the buzzer. 6-3.

Final: Steelers 26, Chargers 23

Week 11: vs Cincinnati

The Bengals come to town looking to put an end to the Steelers three-game win streak. The Bengals will still be putting up big numbers offensively, but this is a different Steelers offense they saw a month ago, this time in Pittsburgh.

This game will be won by the Steelers defensive line, and will be Derrick Harmon’s coming-out party. He gets to Burrow twice, one of those being a strip sack, and Heyward also chips batting down multiple passes. The Steelers frustrate Joe Burrow just enough, and Pat Freiermuth has his best game of the year, going over a hundred yards and getting in the end zone. 7-3.

Final: Steelers 26, Bengals 24

Week 12: at Chicago

Tell me you’ve heard this before – four wins in a row heading into the holidays with an offense looking like it actually could be something, coupled with a brutal stretch of games to close out the year. I wouldn’t necessarily call the Bears a brutal matchup, but at this point in the season I think Caleb Williams will be playing well in Ben Johnson’s offense and they’ll be a hard team to beat at home.

I think this will be a fun one – a lot of scores and a lot of turnovers from both teams, and it’ll come down to who makes the least number of mistakes. Ultimately Aaron Rodgers does not give up his deed to Solider Field quite yet, and plays well in fourth quarter to put the Steelers up late. The Bears will have a chance, but TJ Watt reminds everyone he’s still a top player in the league and sacks Williams to get the win. 8-3.

Final: Steelers 24, Bears 21

Week 13: vs Buffalo

And here begins the gauntlet once again. The Bills come to town and once again remind the league that the Steelers are not an elite team. Coming off a hard-fought game against Chicago, Pittsburgh comes out flat on both sides of the ball and get down big early.

Similar to their playoff game in the 2023 season the Steelers will fight back and make it look closer than it is, but Josh Allen is just too good both on the ground and through the air. They don’t have an answer for him, and the slow offensive start puts them in too much of a hole. 8-4.

Final: Buffalo 31, Steelers 20

Week 14: at Baltimore

This is the definition of brutal. The Steelers first matchup against the Ravens comes in Baltimore in December having played eight straight games while the Ravens come off mini-bye week. Regardless of the situation the Steelers tend to play Baltimore close, but I have a hard time seeing them pulling out a victory here.

This is the point of the season Derrick Henry begins to wear on teams, and we’ll see that here. The Steelers again won’t have an answer for the Henry/Jackson zone read, and their offense will make it two straight weeks of sub-par output. Not only is two losses in a row, but it’s all the same questions, criticisms, and callouts from the media begin again. They’ll be 8-5, but it sure won’t feel like it.

Final: Ravens 34, Steelers 20

Week 15: vs Miami

You wanna talk about a must win? They will absolutely need this one, and luckily there will be a lot of things going their way in this one. Monday Night Football, Color Rush jerseys, and Tua having to play in the cold in December. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Dolphins have fired Mike McDaniel at this point, so there really shouldn’t be any excuse for the Steelers to drop this game.

The offense will continue to struggle, but as they’ve done so many times the defense and Renegade will help them win this one at the end. It’ll be an ugly, but classic Chris Boswell game, drilling five field goals, two from 50+, and one late to put the game out of reach. 9-5.

Final: Steelers 22, Dolphins 13

Week 16: at Detroit

It’s going to be really interesting to see what type of team the Lions are without Ben Johnson. He’s nearly impossible to replace, and you have to think there will be some drop-off without his creativity and play calling. That said, the Lions are well coached and have talent everywhere, so my guess is they’re competing for a playoff spot at this point in the season.

Everyone knows Jared Goff’s achilles heal is pressure, but for whatever reason the Steelers most heavily invested position fails to show up when it matters most. Goff has a solid game, and the Steelers struggle to slow down Jahmyr Gibbs who will have two scores. Rodgers will play well against his former division foe, but it won’t be enough in the end in what is the most disappointing defensive game from the Steelers since the December game in Baltimore last year. 9-6.

Final: Lions 31, Steelers 27

Week 17: at Cleveland

The ultimate let down spot. With the division out of reach, the Steelers will once again control their own destiny – win their last two games and they’re in the playoffs. The Steelers I grew up watching used to thrive in these moments, but Tomlin for whatever reason can’t get his team up for this game against a hated division rival.

The Browns will probably have their best option playing at quarterback at this point, and behind their home crowd this will be their super bowl: knocking off the Steelers and preventing them from getting to the postseason. They’ll bring out all the stops – trick plays, consistent blitzes, and big special teams plays. Myles Garrett will get to Aaron Rodgers twice, and the Steelers will somehow manage to crumble again when it matters most. An uninspired, depressing loss. They’ll need to win in Week 18 and get help to make the playoffs. 9-7.

Final: Browns 21, Steelers 20

Week 18: vs Baltimore

I think the Ravens will be even better than 2024 and have the number one overall seed wrapped up at this point. The Chargers and Broncos will cut down on the Chiefs wins, and Ravens beating the Bills in their regular season matchup will make this game meaningless for Baltimore. This will mean no Jackson, Henry, Andrews, Hamilton, etc, and should be a Steelers win.

They’ll make it harder than it needs to be as usual, and the Ravens will be doing everything they can to make sure Pittsburgh doesn’t see the playoffs. But as every season goes, the Steelers will win this game in ugly fashion and we’ll be sitting back watching the afternoon games to see if they get the help they need to clinch a playoff birth. 10-7.

Final: Steelers 20, Ravens 17

In 2025 the Steelers don’t find themselves as lucky as the two previous seasons and end up missing out on the playoffs. Between the Bengals, Broncos, Chargers, Patriots and one other surprise team the Steelers’ ten wins won’t be enough. It’s another heart-breaking, gut-wrenching, painful season for both the players and the fans. Calls for Tomlin’s firing will happen again (probably by me, again), and the city will once again be left puzzled as to how they can’t put together a fully functional offense.

The Week 5 bye proves killer, as the team will run out of gas down the stretch again. Honestly I’m probably a little bit generous with ten wins, but they somehow figure out ways to win games and make you hate them while they do it. It’ll be another stressful, annoying season, but this time at the end of it all they’ll at least have a glimmer of hope – the 2026 Draft in Pittsburgh.