I’m disappointed in myself for not staying consistent with articles the second half of the season, but I’m not gonna sit here and harp on that after what we just witnessed from the Steelers the last month. Every classic Steelers thing possible happened, and here we are with their first home playoff game since 2020. Time to get back to work.

I’ll kick things off by saying the Monday Night Football game is by far the worst slot for Wild Card Weekend. The format was so much better when it was three games Saturday and three games Sunday. Having to wait to watch, especially after all these incredible games we’ve seen this weekend, is so frustrating. The one positive though is the Steeler 23-game home winning streak on MNF. Let’s hope that streak continues against the Texans tonight.

Texans Preview

DeMeco Ryans has led the Texans to the Divisional Round in each of his first two seasons with a 2-2 record, so him and much of his roster already have a good amount of playoff experience. On top of that, their offensive coordinator Nick Caley was part of the coaching staff for the last two Super Bowls in the Belichick Patriot era, so they have people on the staff that knows what it takes to get it done in the playoffs.

Houston comes into this game on a nine-game win streak on the back of, at least in my opinion, the best defense in the league. All eleven dudes fly to the ball, rarely miss tackles, and hit harder than anyone. They’ve allowed 23 points or more only three times this season – twice against two playoff teams in Seattle and Jacksonville, and last week against Indy while they were resting some starters. We’ll get into more details shortly, but this is a Super Bowl caliber group.

Their offense is very middle of the pack in all aspects, including quarterback CJ Stroud. Stroud has an excellent deep ball, but most of those are too wide open wide receivers. They don’t move the ball consistently and their run game is 2nd-worst among playoffs from a total yardage standpoint (only more than the Steelers, of course). But they lean on their defense, make timely plays, and don’t turn the ball over, owning the lowest turnover percentage in the league.

Steelers Preview

Pittsburgh is back in the playoffs for the third-straight season having won four of their last five and playing some decent football. Tomlin will look to end his infamous eight-season playoff win drought and (at least for another week or so) calm the storm around him being fired.

Since the Bills game the Steelers offense has hit a little bit of stride, largely due to the play of Aaron Rodgers. He’s averaging 247 yards a game over his last five, and is clearly more comfortable in Arthur Smith’s system. He’s making the right adjustments at the line, calling his own plals when he needs to, and generating big plays to receivers who probably shouldn’t even be on an NFL roster.

The Steelers defense has been getting a little better themselves, though they’ve continued to lack the turnovers and splash plays that have made them elite over the past few years. The play of Joey Porter Jr and Keanu Benton has really stood out as of late, and the unit is finally fully healthy and gelling at right time.

Key Game Matchups

The 1st Quarter

I wasn’t sure if I wanted to talk about it in this section or my game prediction section, but at this point it’s almost the most important thing in the game for the Steelers. Every Steelers fan knows, but just to reiterate – the Steelers have been outscored 73-0 in the first quarter of their six-game playoff losing streak.

To put it lightly, Mike Tomlin has not had his teams even close to ready to play out of the gate. What has that led to in these games? 21+ point deficits in every single one of them. Not even Ben Roethisberger was able to overcome any of those deficits, let alone Mitch Trubisky and Russell Wilson.

What’s been the problem you ask? Well number one on the list is turnovers. Excluding the AFC Championship, the Steelers have a -3 turnover margin in the first quarter over their last five playoff games, with three of their turnovers leading to touchdowns for their opponents. The next issue? The Steelers opponents scored a touchdown on their opening drive in three of those five games. Those things simply cannot happen tonight.

The biggest takeaway though is that they just come out flat. They play with no energy, no passion, and look lost out there on both sides of the ball. Ultimately that blame falls on Tomlin, and I really hope he did something different in practice this week to avoid the same old shit. If they don’t match the intensity of this Texans defense out of the gate they’re going to get smacked in mouth just like we’ve seen during this slump.

The YAC Chess Match

All year the Steelers have played the dink and dunk game – getting the ball out quick to Warren and Gainwell and letting them make plays in space. As annoying as it is to watch it’s worked pretty well most of the year, largely in part to how good Warren and Gainwell have been. This week might be a different story though going up against this fast and discipline Texans defense.

Houston gives up the fifth-least yards after the catch, and they FLY to the ball. I haven’t watched a ton of the Texans this year, but every time I have there’s always multiple people making a tackle. With only one real receiving threat on offense for Pittsburgh, it wouldn’t surprise me if Houston plays a lot of man to man and consistently has someone keying on the running backs to keep the short throws as short gains.

How do the Steeler counter? We’ll need to see a lot more of what we saw in the second half of the Baltimore game – attacking the middle of the field with Freiermuth, Calvin Austin, and Adam Thielen. Creating mismatches by moving DK Metcalf into the slot, and using Jonnu Smith downfield instead of just throwing him quick screens that go for two yards.

The problem with that though? Longer route concepts means a longer time to throw for Rodgers, meaning more chance for the dangerous Houston pass rush to get home. Danielle Hunter (15) and Will Anderson Jr (12) absolutely wreck games on the edge, with the defense as a hole tied for seventh in sacks.

Rodgers has not been good under pressure, so getting the ball out quick still has to be priority for the Steelers. Arthur Smith needs to get creative, especially with DK Metcalf. Derek Stingley will probably shadow Metcalf, and as much as it sucks to say I don’t see DK winning that matchup really often. Between Stingley, Kamari Lassiter, and Jalen Pitre, the Steelers are completely outmatched on the outside. If Houston contains the quick game well, Pittsburgh could be in for a long game.

The Steel Curtain

Assuming the Steelers can get over their first quarter woes, then the Steelers defense can decide this game. For the most part Pittsburgh has done a good job at not giving up big plays, which is where the Texans offense excels. Houston lacks an elite run game so they aren’t the best at sustaining long drives. They averaged only 29 yards per drive, which was only better than the Vikings, Jets, Titans, Raiders, and Browns – all of which were horrible offenses in 2025.

As I mentioned earlier the Texans don’t turn the ball over, but that needs to change tonight for the Steelers to win. Joey Porter Jr has been awesome this year, but he has no interceptions. Now’s the time for his first. Jalen Ramsey hasn’t had one one since week two – he’s due. And most importantly, TJ Watt can erase what has been a disappointing season and return to his game-wrecking self. If there’s one thing I’ve noticed about CJ Stroud it’s that he gets easily rattled when he’s under consistent pressure and will force and rush throws.

Plain and simple, the Steelers offense will not put up a lot of points in this game. The Texans’ defense is too good, and the Steelers defense will need to match them for Pittsburgh to have a chance. They haven’t been the dominant group we’re used to this year, but they have the same talent, if not better, and they need to have their best performance of the season under the lights at home when it matters most.

Game Prediction

I’m skipping my injuries and betting portion of this part of the article because A) both teams are healthy and there isn’t anything major to talk about, and B) other than the under I really don’t have anything I’m confident in to bet on this game.

Over the last ten years, this season has been about as typical as a Tomlin-led Steelers season can be. They look great at times, they look horrible at times, they look average at times, and they sneak into the playoffs by the skin of their teeth with a barely above .500 record. For a split second I thought it might be different after their win against Detroit, but obviously they had to lose to the Browns. Regardless, here we are with a home playoff game, whether they deserved it or not.

I’ve gone back and forth on this game a lot this week. Part of me wants to believe this year is different. Because of what Aaron Rodgers has done for the offense. An offensive line that’s exceeded expectations. A running back tandem that’s the best in the league. A defense with playmakers at each level. A kicker that’s still an All-World talent no matter what anyone says.

But there’s still Mike Tomlin. There’s still Teryl Austin. There’s still Arthur Smith. There’s still a lack of explosive plays on offense. There’s still a defense that can’t get off the field on third downs. There’s still a team that can never play complimentary football no matter how hard they try. And there’s still a team that’s gotten beaten down in the playoffs more than anyone over the last decade.

Honestly, I really don’t know who wins this game. What I do know though, is that this matchup is not like the last three playoff matchups (Chiefs, Bills, Ravens) the Steelers have been in. Those were all dominant teams on both sides of the ball with top three NFL quarterbacks. The Texans may have a dominant defense, but it’s a quarterback driven league and CJ Stroud does not instill fear in me like Mahomes, Allen, and Jackson do, and I’m sure the Steelers and Tomlin feel the same way.

This NFL season is the most wide open it’s ever been. This weekend alone we saw the lowly Panthers go wire-to-wire with the Rams, the Bears finally get over the 20+ year Packer-hump, and an injury-ridden 49ers team go into Philly and knock-off the defending champs.

So God damnit, why not the Steelers? Why not the 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers that everyone wrote off? Why not Kenneth Gainwell on a one-year minimum deal? Why not the 36-year-old All-Pro Cam Heyward? Why not a home crowd that’s been yearning for this team to get back to what it once was? And why not a city that hasn’t seen a single playoff victory across all major sports in nearly a decade?

Last Sunday that missed kick by Baltimore was on my birthday. I thought for sure they were gonna lose that game and that’s how I would start my last year in twenties. But that didn’t happen, and it doesn’t start this week. The highest-paid defense in the league finally acts like it and they force two turnovers – one interception by James Pierre and one vintage TJ Watt strip sack. Nick Herbig shines under the lights again and adds two sacks of his own. And Cam Heyward continues his dominant play with three tackles for loss. Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell keep their pace, with Warren grinding it out on the ground and Gainwell getting in the end zone through the air. And Chris Boswell erases any doubt anyone may have had at the tail-end of this season, hitting three deep field goals

It’ll be an ugly, grind-it-out game, and at the end it’s Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers doesn’t turn it over, does just enough all night to not get the offense off script, makes timely throws late, and leads a drive that runs out the clock and doesn’t give the Texans another chance. The drought is over. The talk of firing Tomlin is put on pause for the time being, and the legendary career of Rodgers continues for one more week. See you in New England.

Steelers 16, Texans 13

Here. We. Go.