December might have came early this year in Pittsburgh. And all signs point to things getting worse for the Steelers with their upcoming schedule. My friends have told me this game against the Colts is a “classic Tomlin upset” spot, which in years past with Ben or an elite defense might have been true, but things are different this year. They’re a bad football team.

The “any given Sunday” slogan is why I love the NFL so much – any team can beat any team at any point in the season. So there’s always a chance, but the discrepancy between these two teams is massive. And is a prime example of why coaching matters so much.

Colts Preview

The Colts are an absolute wagon. Hand up because I definitely did not see this coming, but to date they’ve done something only one other team in NFL history has done, joining the 2007 Patriots team as the only ones to score 30 points in six of their first eight games (the Colts also scored 29 once this year).

They are averaging an astounding 0.23 EPA per play. That obviously leads the league, while the Packers, who just did whatever they wanted to Pittsburgh, are in second. Not good for a sign defense that seems to get worse week after week and a coach that wants to put the blame on the offense.

Shane Steichen, Daniel Jones, and Jonathan Taylor could and honestly should each win a respective NFL award with how they’re playing. Offensively there really isn’t a lot to talk about because they don’t have any weaknesses. The only thing could maybe be the lack of an elite wide receiver, but Michael Pittman is good enough and Tyler Warren makes up for anything that Pittman lacks.

Defensively the Colts are solid all around. They don’t necessarily have that big named star that you’d expect on a 7-1 team, but they’re fundamentally sound and don’t make a lot of mistakes. DeForest Buckner, Laiatu Latu, and Kwitty Paye lead a stout defensive front.

Steelers Overview

If the season ended right now, the Steelers would have the worst total defense rank in franchise history (30th). In all of team history???? In my two decades of watching this team that’s probably the most painful stat I’ve ever heard, and that includes the infamous streak of games not having 400 yards of offense in the Matt Canada years.

Pittsburgh is dead last in pass defense, allowing 273.3 yards per game, which is nearly twenty more per game than the next closest team (Dallas). The worst part about it? I don’t think there’s a solution to fix it. They signed all these guys to play man to man, but none of them are good enough or fast enough to do it.

Teams pick them apart with quick passes to prevent the pass rush (that also sucks) from getting home. For whatever reason they think blitzing at an insane rate is the answer, but that only leaves their slow secondary out to dry even more. They don’t play their best pass rusher in Nick Herbig for whatever reason, and continue to let Chuck Clark run around the field like he’s a little kid playing on a playground.

Patrick Queen is playing horrible, TJ Watt is non-existent, Darius Slay looks like he should retire, and everyone out there looks like a little league team trying to make a tackle. In the words of Charles Barkley, they couldn’t stop a nosebleed right now.

Offensively Rodgers is doing all he can with limited weapons and Jaylen Warren continues to be unbelievable. If Tomlin had any intelligence he’d play Jaylen Warren’s film for the whole team to watch, because he’s one of the few players on this team playing real football.

Yet, Arthur Smith hands the ball off three times in the whole second half after Warren had a dominant first half last week. Just mind-boggling stuff. From top to bottom the Steelers are probably one of the worst-coached teams in the NFL, close to teams like the Dolphins, Jets, and Titans.

Key Game Matchups

Contain Jonathan Taylor

There is no stopping Jonathan Taylor right now, so if the Steelers want to have any chance in this game they need to prevent him from going for 150+. Unfortunately for the Steelers it’s not just him, it’s the offensive line.

That picture just about sums up what the league’s best offensive line does week in and week out. With Daniel Ekuale now out for the season with a torn ACL, the Steelers will need to essentially sell out to stop JT.

I don’t know what else you do but constantly have seven to eight in the box at all times and make Daniel Jones beat you through the air (which he’s had no problem doing whatsoever). Indy doesn’t have elite talent or speed at receiver, so I think you just have to take your chances in man to man.

Have Wilson or Ramsey shadow Warren, JPJ shadow Pittman, Echols shadow Downs, and everyone else sell out to stop the run. Is that a good game plan for how bad the pass defense has been? No, probably not, but at this point there’s not a whole lot you can do against the league’s best offense.

Be Aggressive

Thank you for the Football Insights account on Twitter for this graph, because it really has expanded the reach of Tomlin’s idiocrasy across the NFL.

I don’t even like talking about it because it makes me so mad. He has one of the league’s worst defenses yet continues to think it’s 2008 with the likes of Troy Polamalu and James Harrison backing him up. In the days of the Killer B’s they were ultra-aggressive on offense because they didn’t have good defenses. Obviously they don’t have that level of offense right now, but overall they’re the only reason you’ve won any games so far this year.

To me that shows he lacks confidence in himself, his coaches, and most importantly the team as whole. He doesn’t trust either side to win him a game. He’s totally lost, and his in-game coaching flaws are getting exposed now more than ever.

If the Steelers want to have any chance at winning this game they need to be going for it fourth down on nearly every opportunity they get. I would argue anything inside of 4th and 5 from their own forty should be a go. They’re going to need to score, at the very minimum, thirty points to win this game, and you’re not gonna do that settling for four Boswell field goals.

Injuries, Betting, and Game Prediction

Colts Injury Report

Only thing notable to mention here is Grover Stewart on the Colts d-line, so we’ll see when inactives are announced if he dresses. Otherwise all of the Colts main guys are good to go.

Steelers Injury Report

Oof. Holcomb, Clark, Peppers all out, with Malik Harrison questionable. Not what you want to see for an already struggling defense, but we do know that Jalen Ramsey will be playing safety today, per Mike Tomlin. Good to see Seumalo without an injury designation.

Betting

As of mid-day on Friday, the Colts are -3.5 with an Over/Under of 50.5 per DraftKings Sportsbook. I know the game is in Pittsburgh, but I can’t believe it’s not more than -3. Bets I like in this game:

• Jonathan Taylor Over 94.5 Rush Yards (-112)
• Jonathan Taylor 100+ Rush Yards (+111)
• Tyler Warren Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
• Tyler Warren Anytime Touchdown (+140)
• Alec Pierce Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
• Jaylen Warren Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
• Aaron Rodgers Over 237.5 Passing Yards (-111)

Game Prediction

The end of last season was one of the lowest points of my Steelers fandom. Their collapse was almost written in stone with the schedule they had. And now it’s not even three days into November and it seems like we’re about to see the same thing unfold, but on a much worse scale this time.

You look at that schedule and you see what, maybe four wins? And that’s if you include the Bengals game, a team they already lost to. In my opinion it’s going to get bad really quickly, starting with this week against Indianapolis.

Do I think the Steelers could win this game? Sure, like I mentioned earlier upsets happen in the NFL all the time. Do I think the Steelers will win this game? Absolutely not. Straight up, I think this could be one of the biggest losses we’ve seen in the Tomlin era. The 2023 week one 30-7 loss is the worst home loss of his career, and we might see something similar.

The fear teams once had playing Pittsburgh is long gone. From the defense, to the crowd, to Renegade, to the weather, all of it has lost its lust. I can’t recall the last time an away crowd was louder than Heinz Field, and that was the case last week vs the Packers. Everything about this team is embarrassing.

The NFL is a long season, and there’s pleny of time to figure things out, especially with how the AFC North sits right now. There’s always a chance they can, but right now I think dark times are ahead. I’ll happily be wrong if they can turn things around, but with Tomlin and his misfit coaches leading the way I just don’t see it happening.

I think the Steelers get boat raced at home. JT goes for 130 and 2, Daniel Jones goes for 250 and 3, and our offense doesn’t have the firepower to keep up. I’ll pass on individual player predictions for this game for the Steelers because it won’t matter. My only ask is for the crowd in Pittsburgh to let the team – and Tomlin – have it when things get ugly. Let them and the world know we’re tired of the same old shit.

Colts 41, Steelers 20.