In my game preview last week I said I had a bad feeling about the game, but went against my gut and picked the Steelers to win. That will be the last time I do that. The one positive about last week’s game is that it came on a Thursday, which helps you get over the sting a little bit quicker.

A 4-1-1 Green Bay team comes to town to face the Steelers in a Sunday Night Football matchup that will feature the Steelers wearing their grossest jersey’s yet (but the history behind them is cool, for what it’s worth).

The Packers are on a two-game win streak and are in first place in the NFC North. On paper they seem like a really good football team, but if you look a little closer you’ll be able to find some reasons why the Steelers can leave Sunday’s game with a win.

Packers Overview

The Packers are 4-1-1, but let’s break down their games:

• HOME two-score win against the Lions (Week 1 is weird)
• HOME two-score win against the Commanders (Washington may just be bad, they are for sure on defense)
• AWAY 13-10 loss to the Browns
• AWAY Tie to the Cowboys (gave up 40)
• HOME two-score win against the Bengals (Flacco had three days to prep)
• AWAY 4-point win against the Cardinals (Took a game winning drive with less than 2 minutes left)

On the road the Packers only have a +1 point differential. They also average 10.3 penalties on the road compared to only 5 at home. Maybe I’m nit-picking a bit, but so far this year they’re definitely a different team when not playing at Lambeau.

Defensively though the Packers are good – they give up the lowest yards per play on defense in the league at 4.5, tied with Denver and Cleveland. They’ve also given up the least rushing yards in the NFL so far (459 through six weeks), allowing only 3.5 yards per carry.

Through the air they also lead the league in yards per completion allowed (only 8.6). Like the Steelers they’ve had a bye so that helps their numbers, but regardless it’s impressive. With guys like Micah Parsons, Rashan Gary, and Edgerrin Cooper it’s no surprise this defense is this good.

Surprise surprise – the Packers are good on offense too. They’re top ten in yards per play, top five in offensive EPA (66.63), top five in scoring percentage (they score on 47.5% of their drives), and bottom-five in turnover rate (just 4.9% – only the Eagles and Chiefs turn it over less).

The Packers have a balanced attack with a multitude of guys that can beat you. The biggest name is Josh Jacobs, who’s still doing big things both on the ground and receiving, though he’s only averaging 3.7 yards per carry so far this year. Tucker Kraft is also a beast, and someone the Steelers need to make sure they always have eyes on.

The biggest challenge though for every team when facing the Packers on offense is Matt LaFleur. He does an incredible job of scheming guys open, both in critical short yardage situations and to create big plays. The Steelers got torched by Flacco not knowing the playbook last week, so they better come prepared this week or it could be more of the same.

Steelers Overview

The Steelers head into Week 8 coming off by far their worst loss of the season. I don’t know why I act surprised or get frustrated when a loss like this happens because year after year Tomlin gets out-coached and loses to inferior teams, but here we are yet again.

This year is a little different though – it’s not been the miserable offense we’re used to causing the problems, but rather the NFL’s second-highest paid defense to blame for the losses. They absolutely suck right now, plain and simple.

Looking at the basic defensive numbers they’re pretty average across the league (17th in defensive EPA, 12th in pass yards allowed, 21st in rush yards allowed). Diving deeper though is where it gets ugly.

Team’s score on the Steelers 44.1% of the time, 8th-worst in the league. Why is that? Well because the Steelers defense gives up 38.3 yards per drive, dead last in the league, and are on the field for 7.2 plays per drive (only Miami is worse). Thank you Matt Williamson for this lovely stat.

Team’s convert third down on Pittsburgh 41.9% of the time, again the 8th-worst. Austin and Tomlin struggle so much with situational defense. They’re so scared to give up a big play that they let everything else happen in front of them and just pray Watt or Heyward or someone bails them out. I honestly don’t know how they’ve gotten away with it for this long.

Offensively though, Aaron Rodgers has returned. We finally have someone who actually knows how to play the quarterback position again. They’re also playing good complimentary ball, and hopefully finally realizing that Jaylen Warren needs to be featured consistently.

The numbers won’t wow you on offense, but they’re efficient in their approach. They’re tied for 11th in points-per-game with the Rams, and score on 43.1% of their drives, which is 10th in the league. They’re also 8th in the league on converting third downs at 43.3%. If they can increase their time of possession per game (currently 4th -lowest) then we can see this offense take another step forward while also helping their defense.

Keys to the Game

Discipline Defense

Simply put, the Steelers need to have a better game plan for stopping the pass this week than they did against the Bengals. This whole week Tomlin has yapped that the problem they had last week was stopping the run – though that’s true to an extent, he’s completely ignoring how he got massively out-schemed and out-coached by Zac Taylor and Joe Flacco.

The receivers for the Packers aren’t Chase and Higgins thankfully, but it doesn’t matter in LaFleur’s offense. He could get me open downfield. Matthew Golden is blazing fast, Romeo Doubs is solid all around, they’ll add more speed with Christian Watson making his season debut, and Tucker Kraft is an absolute animal.

Their can’t be any of the “communication issues” excuses we always hear against from this team or they will get roasted. Everyone needs to be responsible with their assignments on the backend because the Packers are gonna throw a lot at the Steelers both pre- and post-snap.

The Packers are 5th in the league in motion rate, and 12th in play-action rate. They do an incredible job of creating leverage at the line for their receivers by using stacks and bunches, and aren’t afraid to throw over the middle of the field.

I expect the Steelers to play a lot of zone, as Jordan Love isn’t as effective vs zone as he is against man:

We need to have guys passing their responsibilities across the zones correctly – can’t have more coverage busts like we saw on the last drive last week on the crosser to Ja’Marr Chase. It looked like Chuck Clark’s fault, but there were too many wide open receivers in general.

They don’t need to double team any of Green Bay receiver’s so that should allow the Steelers to deploy Jalen Ramsey in that rover type role we saw earlier in the season. I also wouldn’t mind seeing him or DeShon Elliot manned up on Kraft to force Love away from his safety valve.

Stopping Josh Jacobs on the ground will no doubt be important, but the Steelers also can’t forget about him catching the ball out of the backfield either. He’s a very good receiver, and with Dontayvion Wicks already ruled out don’t be surprised if he gets a bump in targets.

Lastly, tackling. It’s wild how a team that was so good at tackling last year can regress this badly, but that’s Mike Tomlin for you. It needs to be cleaned up, and fast.

Turnover Battle

I don’t like making this a key to the game because it’s a massive deciding factor in every game every week, but it feels extra important this Sunday. When the Steelers win the turnover battle it feels like almost always win, and vice versa.

The best path to winning the battle will be getting pressure on Jordan Love. Love is a great quarterback, but his biggest flaw is being bad under pressure. He ranks 38th in the league in completion percentage while under pressure, and 36th in the league in catchable pass rate under pressure.

He loves bouncing like a bunny in the pocket, so if you can get in his face and get him off rhythm back there he can make mistakes. He has a great arm, but there’s times he trusts it too much and will force throws. The Steelers need to take advantage of these opportunities when they get them and stop dropping interceptions.

There’s no doubt taking the ball away will be a priority for the Packers too, as it’s one of the few areas this team has struggled in this year. They’re tied for the second-fewest forced turnovers in the league, causing only three so far.

Don’t be surprised if you see the Packers move away from their heavy zone scheme defense and play more man. We saw Seattle do that and the Steelers struggled when Rodgers couldn’t get rid of the ball quickly. Add that to the pass rush the Packers have and there’s a lot of opportunity to cause havoc to the Steelers offense.

Time of Possession

I mentioned it briefly earlier, but the Steelers need to do a better job at controlling the game. I’m never gonna complain about the big plays we’ve been seeing after what we’ve watched in previous years, but right now the defense needs all the help they can get.

Until we see improved play from that side of the ball, the Steelers best defense will be keeping the opposing team’s offense off the field. This starts with running the ball and getting Jaylen Warren into a rhythm.

The Rodgers interception deep down the field last week was unbelievably frustrating. Yes, it was his fault and he shouldn’t have thrown into double coverage. But WHY are you calling that play when Warren was absolutely dominating and they couldn’t slow down the Bengals offense? That was probably the maddest I’ve been watching this team so far this season.

Stupid decisions like that are what kill your ability to control the game. Not only do you lose time of possession, but it also swings the momentum to the other team. The Steelers can’t do things like that on Sunday Night in what should be a great environment at Heinz Field.

The Steelers defense also needs to improve badly at getting off the field on third and long situations. As Alex Kozora noted, the Packers convert 3rd and 7+ at an insane 70% rate while Pittsburgh ranks 21st in 3rd and long defense. I’m honestly surprised the Steelers aren’t lower than that, but this will be a massive challenge for a struggling defense.

It also goes back to the momentum aspect – giving up those type of plays kills the energy of the team and flips the crowd. Time of possession is complimentary football, and it’ll be a big factor in deciding Sunday Night’s outcome.

Injuries, Betting, and Game Prediction

Packers Injury Report

That’s a big injury report, but two really stand out. Lukas Van Ness being out is a big loss, and Matthew Golden popping up late in the week with a hip would also have big impact to the Packers offense. Wicks not playing is nulled out by Watson returning, while Lucas Havrisik has yet to miss in the absence of Brandon McManus.

Steelers Injury Report

Getting Calvin Austin back is huge, but the main thing that matters here is Zach Frazier. I’d argue there’s only about three or four other players that would be a bigger loss to the team than Frazier. Luckily he got a limited practice on Friday and said he plans to play.

Betting

As of 4pm on Saturday, the Packers are 3-point favorites on the road per DraftKings Sportsbook, with a 45.5 Over/Under. Bets I like in this game:

• Tucker Kraft Anytime Touchdown (+130)
• Jordan Love Over 20.5 Completions (-108)
• Josh Jacobs Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-109)
• Aaron Rodgers Over 220.5 Passing yards (-111)
• Calvin Austin Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Game Prediction

The Steelers are a truly remarkable team. How they manage to do the same thing over and over again year after year is honestly impressive. They consistently play to the level of their opponents, and are abysmal at playing complimentary football. It’s sick and twisted how they get you to be completely bought in one week and then want the whole coaching staff fired the next week. That’s the life of a fan I guess.

Going off my rant above, I think it’s more of the same this week and the Steelers come to play in what will probably be the best crowd we see this season in Pittsburgh. It’s weird because I don’t see any good path for the Steelers to win this game other than creating turnovers, yet I think they do it somehow.

That starts and ends with their main guys stepping up. I’m talking TJ Watt, Cam Heyward, Patrick Queen, Jalen Ramsey. TJ Watt most importantly. Everyone knows the decline happens at some point, but you’re the second highest paid defensive player in the league. I understand the chips and the double teams are hard to work through, but it doesn’t happen every single play. He needs to take advantage of the one-on-one matchups he gets and create the splash plays we’re used to seeing for the Steelers to have a chance to win this game. I expect at least two turnovers from the defense, with one of them coming late in the fourth quarter.

You of course can’t forget revenge game Rodgers. He’s been very modest all week, saying he doesn’t feel like it’s revenge game, it’s just another game, etc. I’m here to tell you that you’re out of your mind if you believe that shit. There’s no doubt he’s out for blood against the team that pushed him out in favor of their current starting quarterback. I think we get a true vintage Rodgers game as he has first 300-yard game as a Steeler, adding two touchdown passes.

This will also be a classic performance from Boswell. The Steelers redzone success will drift back to the mean a bit in this game, but Boswell will drill four field goals, one of them to win the game.

This feels like a game that will be drunk, a lot of bizarre plays and weird calls. Maybe it’ll be the crowd, maybe it’ll be a defensive touchdown, or maybe it’ll be the lore and history of those disgusting 1933 throwback jersey’s they’re wearing, but the Steelers will somehow win this game and get us all bought back in again. That’s what my guts telling me this week, and that’s the world Steelers fans live in, so why not embrace it. Steelers 26, Packers 24.

Here We Go.