Apologies for the missed game preview last week – the London game messed up my timing and didn’t want to publish an incomplete article. We’re back for Week 6 though, as the Steelers take on Cleveland in what I would classify as a must-win game.

I’ll add on to why I think it’s must-win later on in the game prediction section, but we’ll start by breaking down a Cleveland team that hasn’t won a regular season game in Pittsburgh since 2003, with the notorious Tommy Maddox starting at quarterback.

Browns Overview

The Browns head into Week 6 at 1-4 but have one of the league’s best defenses, giving up the 7th fewest pass yards and 2nd fewest rush yards so far this season. I knew the Browns would have a good defense this year, but they’ve outperformed my and most people’s expectations to this point.

They’ve given up high point totals (41 to a healthy Baltimore, 34 to Detroit) but between those games five scoring drives were because Cleveland turned the ball over in opponent territory, giving them a short field. That was with Joe Flacco at quarterback though, and the Steelers will have to face 3rd-Round rookie Dillon Gabriel making his second career start.

Gabriel doesn’t have the biggest arm and has always leaned on his processing and getting rid of the ball quickly for him to have success. In college he never had more than seven interceptions throughout six seasons so he knows how to take care of the ball. Obviously the NFL is a whole different world, and from I watched last week he wasn’t completely comfortable.

Going against a Brian Flores defense in your first career start is less than ideal, but he missed some throws that were makable and seemed uncomfortable at times. He’ll be facing a Steelers defense that’s blitzing at the 8th-highest rate in the league.

A positive for the Browns offense has been rookie running back Quinshon Judkins. He looks the part and his stats back it up, averaging 4.8 yards per carry in his first four games. Stopping Judkins should be the focus of the Steelers defense in this game, making sure you force Gabriel to beat you through the air.

Steelers Overview

The Steelers take on Cleveland coming off a bye and sitting at 3-1 atop the AFC North. Although Tomlin and his decision making managed to make the Vikings game much closer than it was, they’ll hope to keep the momentum going after what I think was one of their most impressive wins in the post-Big Ben era against a team the Browns just lost too.

It’s difficult to put their league averages on both sides of the ball into perspective since they’re one of only four teams that had a bye week, but we’ve seen things come alive in their two games before the bye.

On offense the Steelers looked good against Minnesota – they ran for over a hundred yards for the first this season, but to me that’s not what stood out. What caught my eye was the offensive line. For the first time since I don’t know when the Steelers o-line was winning at the point of attack, creating sizeable holes for Gainwell to run through. I don’t want to take anything away from Gainwell who played well, but the offensive line was actually impressive, and they’ll need to carry that over against a very good Cleveland front.

On defense it’s a similar story, as it seems like their starting to play how we expected them to. They’ve combined for 11 sacks and 7 turnovers in their last two games, along with allowing less than 200 hundred rushing yards, a vast improvement from the first two weeks. They’ll need to keep the pressure on the rookie early and often, stack the box to slow Judkins, and win the one-on-one matchups on the outside. Don’t let the rookie get into a rhythm.

Key Game Matchups

The Trenches

I’ve mentioned it before, but this will be a recurring theme in these game previews because of the questions around the Steelers line. This week especially though because of how good the Browns defensive front is. Maliek Collins, Isaiah McGuire, and Myles Garrett are all highly ranked by PFF and are playing at an elite level, and first-round pick Mason Graham continues to get better each week.

Collins has 3.5 sacks as a defensive tackle, only a half sack behind Garrett, and the Browns as a whole are tied for fourth in the league (with Pittsburgh) in total sacks. The Steelers have always struggled to slow down Garrett, as most teams do, but Broderick Jones will need to be on his absolute best so Garrett doesn’t completely wreck this game.

The Browns d-line also excels at holding blocks and clogging holes, allowing their linebackers to have free shots on opposing running backs. I was STUNNED to see former Steeler Devin Bush have an 80 PFF rating on the season, and a lot of his success, along with the Browns leading tackler Carson Schwesinger, is because of how dominant the Browns line is. If I’m the Steelers I’d come out and use a lot of hurry up to try and get these guys tired, especially since the Steelers are bye-week rested and the Browns are coming off a London trip.

Cam Heyward and company need to be on their best too to slow down Cleveland’s run game. Joel Bitonio is a stud up front, but overall the Browns line gels well together in the run game, and Judkins is someone who will run through or around you. Derrick Harmon has played well so far, but this is a huge spot for him to break out and win his matchups.

Similar to Harmon, Benton is coming off what might’ve been his best game as a Steeler, and he’ll need to build off his last performance. We saw him get blown off the ball the first couple of weeks. If that happens again we could see the Steelers give up similar rush yardage like we saw against the Jets and Seahawks.

I also wanna see Patrick Queen and Payton Wilson continue to fly to the ball in the run game. It took them a bit to get going, but it seems like Queen is finally playing like the linebacker the Steelers paid him to be.

Rodgers to Metcalf

We finally saw these two heat up against Minnesota and it was a beautiful site to see. The Steelers aligned Metcalf in the slot to give the defense different looks, and Rodgers was checking plays at the line that were supposed to be runs and instead catching and throwing the Metcalf. There are two major differences in this week’s matchup though that could cause the Steelers problems with this connection.

The Browns play heavy man-to-man coverage so those same openings that Rodgers exploited against the Vikings won’t be there. This means that DK will have to win against Denzel Ward and newly acquired corner Tyson Campbell, who Stefanski has already said will start right away Sunday.

Neither of these corners really strike fear into me so I doubt they do to Metcalf, and if the Browns do opt to have Ward shadow him it could be advantage DK. Ward is giving up 4 inches and 40 pounds to Metcalf, so to me this screams a lot of downfield shots and back shoulder throws. Campbell has a little more size but PFF has him at a 51.1 coverage grade so far this year, plus it’s his first game in a new system.

The bigger obstacle will be the absence of Calvin Austin. This is probably a bigger problem than the difference in coverage, and is honestly just frustrating to continue to have to talk about. There’s no doubt the Browns will heavily double team DK with the lack of threat alongside him, so the Steelers will need to continue to play with this alignment and be creative in getting other guys open

Put DK in the slot, put him in stacks and bunches, even put him in motion. Whatever they do, just don’t consistently have him line up on the outside and allow the Browns to put a safety over the top of the corner who’s pressing him. We saw that far too often with Pickens in previous years and we know how that goes.

The Turnover Battle

This one is pretty straightforward. Whoever wins the turnover battle will win the game. I expect this to be an old-fashioned, grind it out AFC North fight with the offenses not doing a whole lot.

The Browns have a great defense, but are near the bottom of the league in takeaways, forcing only 4 so far. The Steelers are second in the league with 10, however 5 of those came in one game against New England.

For the Browns the key will be getting pressure on Aaron Rodgers. He’s one of the worst QB’s in the league under pressure, taking a sack 25% of the time when the defense generates a pressure. He can’t move and avoid it well, so the Browns will hope to hurry his decision-making process and force rushed throws.

Pressure will be big for the Steelers too, but with Jalen Ramsey now available the bigger key will be to confuse Dillon Gabriel. To this point the Steelers have done a good job of mixing up coverages and personnel, but they should turn that up a notch further this week. Bring secondary blitzes, let Jalen Ramsey roam around the field, and do a lot of man-to-zone disguises.

A final point – batted balls. Gabriel sits at only 6 feet tall, and the Steelers have really excelled at getting their hands on passes at the line. With how quickly Gabriel will wnats to get rid of it, knocking passes down at the line and getting a tipped interception should be huge focus for the Steelers front.

Injuries, Betting, and Game Prediction

Browns Injury Report

The Browns come in with an almost totally clean injury report.

Steelers Injury Report

Though Ramsey is listed as questionable, Schefter reported earlier today at Ramsey is expected to play. The Steelers get back Warren, Porter, and Highsmith, missing only Calvin Austin on Sunday.

Betting

Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Steelers are 5.5 (!!!) point favorites at -115, with a whopping 37.5 Over/Under.

Bets I like this week:

• David Njoku Over 3.5 Receptions (-146)
• Quinshon Judkins Over 78.4 Rush Yards (-111)
• Pat Freiermuth Anytime Touchdown (+425)
• Jaylen Warren Over 2.5 Receptions (-138)

Game Prediction

I’m so sick and tired of the same shit over and over again. I think every Steelers fan is. The AFC is more wide open this year than it has been since I can remember, and if you want to be taken seriously this is a game you must win. You’re facing a quarterback starting his second career game, an offense that hasn’t scored more than 17 points all year, against a team that hasn’t won a regular season game in Pittsburgh since I was 6 years old.

Your team is fully healthy minus Calvin Austin, you’re coming off a bye, you’re 5.5 point favorites, and the Browns are coming off a game in London. You HAVE to win this game. Plain and simple. Would I like for the Steelers to “impose their will” and dominate the game and solidify themselves as a contender? Of course, I think most would. But it’s only October, there’s still kinks to work out, so by all means just win the damn game any way you can.

You know what else I’m tired of? Myles Garrett and all his bullshit. All he does is yap about the Steelers and how good he thinks he is. How about you shut that loser up. Double teams, chips, down blocks every play. Do not let him breathe. And TJ Watt – how about a throwback dominant game against the Browns and show the world who the better player actually is.

Sorry, I’m done with my ranting. For my actual prediction, I think the defense wins us the game. An interception for Joey Porter Jr in his return, and an interception by Patrick Queen that gets returned for a touchdown. Nick Herbig sack fumble, TJ Watt with a sack of his own. Three turnovers lead to three scores, as Rodgers keeps up the high efficiency in the redzone. Freiermuth gets back involved and scores, as does Jaylen Warren in his return. And of course, three Boswell field goals help put the game away.

It will be ugly. It will be frustrating. But with the Ravens at 1-4, likely dropping to 1-5, you can’t lose. Take control of the division and your own destiny against a much inferior team. However way you can, just win. Steelers 23, Browns 16.

Here We Go.