After a performance to forget in Week 3, Pittsburgh heads to New England where they haven’t won since 2008. That, however, is the least of this team’s worries, as they’ve been bad in all three phases of the game on both sides of the ball (aside from Boswell, of course).

After last Sunday’s loss vs Seattle, it seems like we’re right back in the same spot we’ve been in the last half decade with the Steelers – lackluster offense, out-coached and out-schemed in-game, and a defense that looks completely lost but much earlier in the year now. And all of it starts and ends with Tomlin, who refuses to change in an ever-changing league.

On the bright side though it’s a long season and it’s only Week 3. Pittsburgh has a lot of new faces on both sides of the ball that are getting acclimated to the (poor) systems. And a quarterback who’s seen it all and is the most positive person in the whole organization right now, which is what the team needs.

It really is difficult to see things getting better based on the past, but the only thing the team can do right now is take it one week at a time, and that means beating a New England team who’s looking to find its own identity under Mike Vrabel and second year quarterback Drake Maye.

Patriots Overview

New England is coming in 1-1 following a 20-13 loss vs Las Vegas and then a 33-27 win vs Miami. Defensively, the Patriots are one of only three teams in the league who are actually allowing more yards per play (6.6) than the Steelers (6.3) through the first two weeks. Geno Smith threw for 360 yards against them in the opener, and Tua Tagovailoa threw for 315 the following week.

The Patriots will be without star corner Christian Gonzalez again, as he’ll miss his third straight week with a hamstring injury. That means for another week it’ll be corner Alex Austin opposite of veteran Carlton Davis, who so far this year has really struggled (46.9 Overall PFF Grade).

Their run defense however looks to be stout, as they’ve only allowed 117 total rushing yards through those first two games. Christian Barmore and Milton Williams lead that charge, as they’ll look to continue to dominate against a below-average Steelers offensive line.

Offensively, Drake Maye seems to have taken a bit of year two jump. He’s gone under the radar so far, but his 78 Overall PFF grade matches his play as he’s looked more poised and confident in the pocket compared to last year. He doesn’t have a ton of weapons on the outside, but Maye has done a good job spreading the ball around between ten different receivers over first two weeks.

Their running back situation is also calvary, as rookie TreyVeon Henderson’s struggles in pass protection saw him get out-carried by both Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson last week. Maye also throws to the running backs a ton, with 18 combined targets going to those three so far.

They ran for only 60 yards in week one but 122 in week two. I think the Dolphins are just really bad in general and that’s part of it, but 31 of those week two yards came from Drake Maye’s legs. That’s something the Steelers are going to have to make sure they plan to stop.

Steelers Overview

The Steelers go to Foxborough hoping to calm the storm any way they can, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Their entire defensive line, including Cam Heyward, have gotten bullied through the first two weeks, allowing 299 yards rushing. Payton Wilson has really struggled against the run, and talks of Cole Holcomb getting more reps on early downs have already begun (though that will just create another problem, in my opinion).

Pittsburgh is also bottom ten in terms of pass yards allowed (490). Joey Porter Jr and DeShon Elliot being out doesn’t help that cause, but it’s more of what we always see when the secondary falters – guys running wide open. Jaylen Ramsey has been solid, but overall I blame the pass defense more on coaching than I do the players. Up front you can see them getting pushed around, but in the secondary it seems like guys are beat even before the snap just based off their alignment.

On offense, week two showed us that week one may have been a facade against a bad Jets team. The Steelers are 30th (!!!) in yards per attempt running the ball at only 3.0. Some of that is because Kenneth Gainwell is just completely ineffective on the ground yet they continue to put him out there. But the majority of the blame, as with most bad run games, falls on the offensive line.

Isaac Seumalo, Broderick Jones, and Troy Fautanu all have PFF run blocks grades below 43. I don’t love using PFF as a reference because a lot of the times my eyes tell a different story than their grade, but in this case it’s correct. They’ve been really bad, plain and simple.

Through the air hasn’t been much better for the Steelers. Outside of that horrendous throw that Rodgers threw directly to a Seahawk last week he hasn’t been terrible, but he also hasn’t been great either. Part of that is the poor protection, but when Rodgers does have time no one can get open. That is where the real problem lies, and again that comes back to coaching.

WR2 is a problem, yes, but Calvin Austin has shown he’s capable and when you look around the league (the Patriots being one of them) you see teams doing more with less by scheming guys open. The Steelers haven’t done that since Todd Haley. They also haven’t taken one shot down field to DK Metcalf. Why’d you trade away a second-round pick if you aren’t gonna feed him the ball on all three levels of the field?

The only silver lining is Jaylen Warren. As I harped all offseason, the dude is absolutely incredible, and if they keep giving Kenneth Gainwell snaps over him when Warren doesn’t need to be out of the game or on key downs there really might not be hope for this offense because it makes no sense.

Key Game Matchups

Rushing and Protecting the Passer

Coming into this game New England leads the league in sacks with 9, and Pittsburgh is tied for fourth-most sacks allowed with 7. As mentioned earlier some are due to no one getting open and Rodgers poor mobility, but overall the Steelers protection has been not good. If the Steelers don’t do a better job this week there’s a chance the Patriots wreck this game with the amount of pressure they put on Rodgers.

Harold Landry III is tied for the league lead in sacks with Myles Garrett at 3.5, while Milton Williams and K’Lavon Chaisson each have 2 of their own. Broderick Jones will see Landry the majority of the time, and that alone is a scary matchup if Jones play doesn’t improve fast.

In my opinion Jaylen Warren is too valuable as a pass catcher to be consistently staying back to block, so the Steelers need to use Darnell Washington more in pass pro. As teams do to Watt, there should be consistent tight end help for Jones, especially on obvious passing downs, if the Steelers want to have success at slowing down this pass rush.

On the opposite side, the Steelers need to do a better job at getting to the quarterback, and that starts with TJ Watt.

As denoted above, Watt gets double teamed almost more than anyone in the league, but his win rate is still below the league average. It’s a long season and I’m not goingt to be one of the people to jump and say he’s washed, but I’m also not gonna act like I’m not worried. Per Derrick Brown on Twitter, Watt’s snap get-off time has declined each of the last four seasons:

• 2022: .75 seconds
• 2023: .79 seconds
• 2024: .83 seconds
• 2025: .87 seconds

Yes, the increase in double teams have an impact on those times, but at the end of the day Watt has usually found a way get home at least a couple times per game, and so far this year he hasn’t. Whether it’s scheme or just flat out winning when he has the one-on-one opportunities, we need to see Watt impact the game this week from a pass rush standpoint.

It’s also Nick Herbig time. With Highsmith out, Herbig will now have a full game of opportunity to make the big plays he’s always made when he’s been in. He gets rookie Will Campbell, who so far has been good with a 77.7 PFF Pass Block grade. At the end of the day though, Herbig should, and needs, to win this matchup for the Steelers to win.

Linebacker Play

Out of 70 qualifying players, 3 of the bottom 6 graded linebackers per PFF are in this game (Christian Elliss 69th, Robert Spillane 66th, Payton Wilson 65th). The battle, as always, will be won or lost up front, but how well each side’s linebackers play could be a deciding factor in this game.

Steeler fans know from experience that Bobby Spillane is solid coming downhill against the run, but he can’t cover to save his life. The Steelers need to exploit the matchups against him and Ellis (28.2 PFF Coverage Grade) as much as possible in this game. That means Jaylen Warren, Pat Freiermuth, and Jonnu Smith. Passing on early downs when the Patriots are in base, trying to isolate those two in one-on-one matchups. Get ahead of the sticks with quick-hitters instead of running the ball on 2nd and 10.

On the other side, the Steelers need to see more from Payton Wilson, especially against the run. The film of him getting blown up by the fullback last week is going to stay in a lot of people’s heads until he starts filling gaps and making plays at the line of scrimmage. It’s his second season and in the long-term I do think Wilson can get better and add some weight to be the every down backer the Steelers want him to be, but right now he doesn’t seem ready to be able to take on linemen in the hole.

The thought of Cole Holcomb being in the game is honestly scary when it comes to covering literally anyone, but it’s a risk the Steelers might have to take if they think he can be effective at stopping the run on early downs. Pittsburgh also brought in the ex-Patriot Ja’Whaun Bentley to help in this area, though it’s unlikely he dresses this week.

But whether it’s Patrick Queen, Wilson, Holcomb, or (hopefully) Jabrill Peppers some, the play needs to improve. That starts with simply tackling, as per ESPN’s Next Gen Stats has the Steelers leading the league in missed tackle rate at 18.2%. So much for all those padded practices in Latrobe, huh?

Special Teams

It wouldn’t be surprising to me whatsoever if a Tomlin-Vrabel matchup came down to a play on special teams, but coming into this game both teams have some issues. I won’t even mention the Kaleb Johnson debacle last week, other than the fact that hopefully his replacement this week can cause a spark in their return game (which as of now according to the depth chart is Roman Wilson).

They need it badly, because per Alex Kozora the Steelers have somehow managed to be one of only four teams to have a worse kickoff return yard average than last year through the first two tweeks. I love Danny Smith, but they need to be better here. It can be such an advantage in a game, and yet the Steelers just seem completely content with starting at their own 25 while others are starting closer to the 40. It’s so frustrating, especially when you have such a weapon in Chris Boswell.

From a coverage standpoint, advantage New England again. Through two weeks the Steelers allowed the most return yards in the NFL so far at 339, while New England is third in the league averaging 28.2 yards per return, and returned kickoff 90 yards for touchdown last week. I really hope the Steelers made kickoffs a focus in practice over the last few days, because if they didn’t it could lose them a game for the second week in a row.

Something for New England to look out for is kicker Andy Borregales, who’s had some struggles so far. In Week 1 he missed a 40-yard field goal, and in Week 2 he missed two extra points. He’ll have home field advantage this week, but it’s something to keep an eye on, especially since the Steelers blocked a kick last week vs Seattle.

Injuries, Betting, and Game Prediction

New England Injury Report

Gonzalez is obviously a massive loss, but otherwise the Patriots are pretty healthy. If fullback Jack Westover doesn’t play they could just be completely without a fullback this week, as the backup listed on their depth chart is on IR.

Steelers Injury Report

The losses on defense hurt but they’ve been known throughout the week who isn’t playing. The biggest note is Derrick Harmon, who with a full practice Friday seems like he has a great shot to make is NFL debut on Sunday. And the Steelers need all the help they can get on defense.

Betting

Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Steelers are -1.5 point favorites, with an O/U of 44.5. Hopefully Vegas knows something we don’t know, because the Steelers being favorites in this game on the road after how they’ve played thus far is sort of puzzling.

Bets I like in this game:

• Jaylen Warren Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
• Jonnu Smith Longest Reception Under 14.5 Yards (-110)
• TreyVeon Henderson Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
• Over 44.5 (-105)

Game Prediction

The pressure is on in Pittsburgh. No one is safe from fan and media criticism right now, from management to the coaches to the players. No one has been good enough, and it’s showed on the field. Does that change this week? Unfortunately I don’t think so.

I think Pittsburgh’s offense will bounce back a bit, as Rodgers will throw for two touchdown passes, surpassing Brett Favre for third on the all-time passing touchdown list. But the New England front will pose too much of a problem, as the Steelers will again struggle to run the ball and protect Rodgers sufficiently. New England gets a strip sack that flips the field and changes the game.

Defensively the Steelers will defend the run a little better, as they hold the Patriots to right around a hundred yards rushing. However, the Steelers will struggle to slow down Drake Maye through the air and with his legs. He’ll extend multiple drives on third down by scrambling, and Hunter Henry will have his biggest game so far this year as he finds the endzone. TreyVeon Henderson also scores his first career touchdown.

I think it’s a similar script as last week, Pittsburgh will be down two scores late, this time will get a garbage time touchdown to cut it to one score, but never get the ball back. Tom Brady or not, there’s just something about playing in New England the Steelers can’t overcome. They fall to 1-2.

Patriots 24, Steelers 21