In terms of my Week 1 score prediction (20-13) I couldn’t have been more wrong, but I think most didn’t expect a 34-32 shootout. My game matchups on the other hand were pretty solid – Membou held his own against Watt in the pass game, the Jets O-Line dominated the Steelers D-Line, and Calvin Austin showed his WR2 ability, all of which had a big part in determining the outcome of the game.

Week 2 is always fun because we get to see what’s real and what’s fake after Week 1, and both of the sides of the ball for Pittsburgh fall into that category. They’ll look to bounce back on defense and keep the fire burning on offense as they face a Seattle team coming off an ugly loss in against San Fran last week.

Seahawks Overview

On offense, Seattle only scored one touchdown in their 17-13 loss at home last week, and Sam Darnold only threw for 150 yards, 124 of those going to Jackson Smith-Njigba. They had 84 rushing yards as a team, but only 67 of those came from their running backs. I didn’t watch a lot of this game, but there really wasn’t much to see since both defenses dominated.

It’s tough to gauge what their offense will be coming off a divisional game week one and it only being Klint Kubiak’s first game as offensive coordinator. Their offensive line allowed eight pressures on Darnold but only one sack. Their run blocking, however, was poor, as no one other than Charles Cross had a run block grade above 60. We’ll see if their line gets more comfortable with Kubiak’s zone scheme against a Steelers line that looked soft as ever last week.

The other side of the ball for Seattle looked solid though. They pressured Brock Purdy fifteen times and picked him off twice. They also held Christian McCafferey to only 3.1 yards per carry, which is impressive no matter how you do it. They did allow 389 yards though, so it’s not like they completely bottled up the Niners. Going into Week 2 they’ll be without Nick Emmanwori and likely Devon Witherspoon (doubtful), with the latter being a huge loss coming off a seven solo tackle performance.

Steelers Overview

It was bizzarro land in New York last week, as the offense carried the team to victory. Rodgers was solid, getting the ball out quick and being very accurate, but it was mainly Arthur Smith who called, in my opinion, his best game as offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh. Winning through the air won’t be sustainable though, and they’ll need to get the running game going after only rushing for 53 yards.

Outside of Jalen Ramsey and TJ Watt against the run, their defense looked putrid. They were dominated up front, giving up 182 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. They also had some miscommunications in the pass game that allowed guys to run free. Darnold will be less of a problem to bring down and extending plays compared to Fields, but the run defense has to be better if they want to get off the field quickly.

I think this game will be more of what we were expecting last week – a low scoring game that will be decided by the defenses and timely offensive playmaking. The Steelers usually thrive in those games, but it will start up front, and going into this game the Steelers seem to be at a disadvantage up front on both sides of the ball.

Key Game Matchups

DK Revenge Game

Another Steeler player revenge game, DK will look to build off his four catch, 83 yard performance last week. Witherspoon has played primarily in the slot so him being out doesn’t impact this matchup much. It will be more about if DK can win against the Seahawks two stud corners, Tariq Woolen and Josh Jobe. Woolen was given a 34.9 coverage grade last week by PFF, while Jobe was given a 90.2 grade. My guess is that Woolen will be the one on DK because of his size.

The reason why I have this as the key matchup, and not the matchup of the Seahawks backup in the slot vs Calvin Austin and company is because of Mike MacDonald. He’s a brilliant defensive mind, and the cat is out of the bag with what the Steelers want to do through the air. Get the ball out quick with short, high percentage throws, and take shots down the field with play action. I think MacDonald is going to prioritize taking the quick stuff away, so it’s going to force Pittsburgh, mainly DK Metcalf, to win one on one down the field.

I’m confident Metcalf can do so against just about any corner in the league, so look today for Rodgers to target Metcalf on a nine route or two throughout the game today, preferably on early downs to make the defense honor it. Connecting on one of them could very well be the difference in this game.

The Trenches

This will probably be a theme in the majority of these previews, but rightfully so. For Seattle, Demarcus Lawrence and Boye Mafe will look to wreak havoc on Rodgers, while veteran Uchenna Nwosu will make his season debut after missing last week. Mafe generated five pressures last week, but he’ll get Troy Fautanu who had a solid week last week. Broderick Jones will get Demarcus Lawrence (I got nervous just typing that), and that matchup can easily change the game in favor of Seattle based off what we saw from Jones last week (three sacks allowed, 46.8 pass block grade).

For the Steelers on defense, we’ll need to see a much better job getting off blocks and making tackles from their big guys up front, including Cam Heyward. He didn’t have a bad game, but we didn’t see his normally dominant self. More importantly, Keanu Benton (47.8 Run Grade) needs to be better. He was getting blown off the ball, and when a nose tackle doesn’t hold his position against double teams it opens up the running lanes we were seeing Breece Hall hit last week.

Lastly, I won’t say I’m worried yet, but I’ll be watching TJ Watt very closely this week against right tackle Abraham Lucas as he tries to break his four-game sack-less streak, tied for the longest in his career. Lucas was Seattle’s worst graded lineman last week, but only credited with two pressures allowed. Watt was double teamed and chipped a lot, but in the one-on-one matchups it was shocking to see Watt be kept so quiet in the pass rush, especially by a rookie.

Jaylen Warren

After all my years of watching the Steelers I don’t know if I was more stunned at something than watching Kenneth Gainwell out-snap Jaylen Warren. I fully expected Gainwell to play, but play more than Warren on both early and late downs was crazy.

Warren is so much more talented than Gainwell in every part of the game, and Gainwell rushing seven times for 19 yards shows that. I know Arthur Smith has done some stupid stuff with running backs in the past, but this is something that cannot continue. The Steelers are going to have to run the ball successfully and I can guarantee it’s not going to be on the back of Kenneth Gainwell.

You paid Warren for a reason, so give him the ball early and often so he and the offensive line can get into a rhythm. It’s something that’s not talked about very often, but an offensive line blocks based off how a running back runs, and vice versa, so handing the ball to Gainwell that much is going to muck things up as we saw last week. When we saw Warren and only Warren for a full drive last week? 6 touches, 37 yards, and his play action touchdown catch to cut the Jets lead to two at the start of the fourth.

Injuries, Betting, and Game Prediction

Seahawks Injury Report

Emmanwori and Witherspoon have been ruled out and doubtful respectfully, but per reports everyone else on the injury report should play as of 10:30am EST. I expect Freiermuth to have a bigger role in the offense this week and exploit Witherspoon’s absence.

Steelers Injury Report

Welcome back Nick Herbig! That’s a great addition for the pass rush, while losing Joey Porter Jr and Elliot is a hit to the secondary. I think the addition of Peppers will make the Elliot loss minimal, but having to bump Ramsey to the outside more and giving Brandin Echols more snaps in the slot could be a problem against the veteran Cooper Kupp.

Betting

Per DraftKings sportsbook as of 10:30 AM EST, Steelers are -3.5 with an O/U of 40.5

Lines I like:

• DK Metcalf Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
• Sam Darnold Over 199.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
• Pat Freiermuth Over 2.5 Receptions (-146)

Prediction

I’ve been going back and forth with this game all week. I have a really hard time seeing the Steelers offense replicate what they did last week against the Jets vs a MacDonald Cover 2 heavy defense that forces you to be able to run the ball well. On the other hand, I also have hard time believing the Steelers get gashed on defense as bad as they did last week, especially against a worse offensive line and quarterback.

As I said earlier, I think it’s going to be a lower scoring game that will come down to what team can hit more splash plays. Now that the Steelers have a real quarterback I think they’re the ones that do it, with Rodgers finding DK for his first touchdown of the season against his former team. Nick Herbig comes in big in his season debut and causes problems for Darnold all game, recording at least one sack. Pat Freiermuth catches the Steelers other touchdown, while Boz does Boz things, going 3-3 on field goals.

With the Steelers in Pittsburgh for the home opener the crowd and renegade is the difference late, as Pittsburgh will force a turnover late off a Cam Heyward batted pass. It won’t be the prettiest win, but the Steelers move to 2-0.

Steelers 23, Seattle 17