After 20+ years of reading Steelers game previews from a variety of sports outlets it’s really cool to finally sit down and write my own for my favorite team. I’m not quite sure how I want to do the format for these so that may change week to week, but I’m going to try to cover all the key storylines and matchups for both teams.

Jets Overview

Week 1 brings up the Jets – a team that sits in the basement of the NFL along with Browns, they host the Steelers with a new head coach (Aaron Glenn), new defensive coordinator (Steve Wilks), new general manager (Darren Mougey), new offensive coordinator (Tanner Engstrand), new special teams coordinator (Chris Banjo), and as all of Steelers Nation knows, a new quarterback in Justin Fields. If any team needed a complete overhaul it’s the Jets, as they look to finally have some sort of positive season for the first time in 15 years.

Steve Wilks last stint as a defensive coordinator was in 2023, helping the Niners reach the NFC Championship game with a defense ranked third overall, and a league-leading 22 interceptions. He’ll look to bring the Jets back to their 2023-level defense after a down year (20th overall defense) in 2024.

Both Engstrand (passing game coordinator) and Glenn (defensive coordinator) come from Detroit and will look to bring some of the Dan Campbell culture to New York. With Engstrand calling the plays we’ll see how much of the Lions passing success and creativity belonged to him or Ben Johnson.

Justin Fields takes helm under center following a season in Pittsburgh and will look to finally prove himself as a starting quarterback. He has Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall at his disposal, but after that? The likes of Josh Reynolds, Allen Lazard, Xavier Gipson, and rookie Mason Taylor shouldn’t pose much of a threat to any team across the league.

On defense, Sauce Gardener will look to bounce back from his worst season so far, posting a 70.3 overall grade in 2024 compared to upper 80 grades the previous two. On the opposite side of Gardener, corner Brandon Stephens (54.3 PFF Grade in 2024) will look to fill the big shoes of DJ Reed who left in free agency. The front seven of the Jets defense is their biggest strength, which includes All-Pro DL Quinnen Williams, Edge Will McDonald IV, and LBs Quincy Williams and Jamien Sherwood, and they’ll aim to return the Jets back to the top-ten ranked run defense they had in 2023.

Steelers Overview

Considering this is a Steelers blog I won’t spend too much time here since we all know the main offseason storylines heading into Week 1, but Pittsburgh will look to bump their opening Sunday record to 7-2-1 over the last 10 years. Being on the road to start is no change, as they’ve only had one Week 1 home game over the last nine seasons (thanks MLB).

Since 2021, the Steelers have scored a whopping three Week 1 touchdowns on offense, almost equaling the amount the defense has scored in Week 1 games (two) in that span. That’s an obvious point the team will look to change on Sunday, along with the dreaded opening drive touchdown draught that goes back to 2008.

The main questions that Steelers fan will be seeking answers to – How well will Aaron Rodgers look with Arthur Smith, How will they use the tight end combinations on offense, How will JPJ/Slay/Ramsey be mixed around on defense, Who will step up as wide receiver two – will all, for better or for worse, be answered on Sunday.

Key Game Matchups

TJ Watt vs Rookie Tackle Armand Membou

To quote the great Shaquille O’Neal, “BARBECUE CHICKEN!” But in all seriousness, I think fans of both teams know that Watt is setup for a potential game-wrecking performance against someone making their first start. We saw Watt have no problem with then-rookie Joe Alt last year, and I expect much of the same on Sunday.

Again, this is an entirely new Jets regime, and they actually have had decent success in recent drafts, so it’s possible Membou holds his ground. But it’s hard to imagine a completely fresh TJ Watt not getting home at one point or another. It’ll also be interesting to see if the Steelers actually do mix up where Watt lines up, though they might not need to if he’s taking Membou’s lunch all day.

Jets Run Game vs Steelers Front Seven

With limited passing threats from both a thrower and pass-catcher standpoint, the Jets will look to run the ball as much as possible. If there’s anything that scares me slightly, it’s the combination of the legs of Justin Fields, Breece Hall, and Braelon Allen. The loss of Alijah Vera-Tucker is detrimental to their entire game plan, but the Jets still boast some solid interior lineman in Joe Tippmann (73.4 2024 PFF Grade) and John Simpson (77.3 2024 PFF Grade).

Aaron Glenn has already stated they plan to run the ball frequently, and I expect them to mix in a lot of designed QB runs to keep the Steelers defense at bay. The player the Steelers should key on most in the run game, in my opinion, is running back Braelon Allen. At 6’2 245, Allen brings a combination of size, athleticism, and power that you don’t see from most backs today. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a fairly even split between him and Hall, so I hope the Steelers don’t overlook and over pursue the change-of-pace Allen.

The loss of Derrick Harmon doesn’t help the Steelers here, but a combination of Heyward, Loudermilk, Black, Benton, and Ekuale should hold their own in the interior. All of Pittsburgh should be excited for Yahya Black’s debut, as he hopes to keep his momentum from a strong preseason. I have no worries about the run defense of Watt and Highsmith, though when their off the field Jack Sawyer and Malik Harrison could be a worry for the Steelers if Nick Herbig (hamstring) ends up not playing.

With how much experience Tomlin and the defense have against defending Lamar Jackson, it would be very frustrating to see Fields beat them on the ground, especially on designed runs. I wouldn’t be surprised if Payton Wilson’s starting debut is a lot of spy work on Fields. It’ll also be interesting to see which of Jalen Ramsey and DeShon Elliot will be playing in the box more on base and short yardage.

Steelers Secondary Receiving vs Non-Sauce Jets D-Backs

The easy choice here would be to say DK Metcalf vs Sauce Gardener, which will no doubt be entertaining, but the difference in the game could be which of the unknowns on both sides has more success in the passing game. The aforementioned Stephens has had a very up-and-down career at corner, and the Jets safeties, Andre Cisco and Tony Adams, have been inconsistent in their own right, though Adams did have a good 2023 with three interceptions.

I recall from the couple Jags games I watched last year that Cisco really struggled against the deep ball, so we’ll see if that’s something Rodgers can exploit with Calvin Austin and Roman Wilson. Though Stephens did have bad year in 2024, he does have a lot of experience against the Steelers after his four years in Baltimore, so we’ll see how much of that knowledge he can leverage in coverage.

On the Steelers side it’s the big question – who in the hell is going to step up behind DK Metcalf? As I stated in my stat projection article, I think Rodgers will have a very evenly distributed approach. This is partly because he can read defenses well and knows where the open players are, but also because of how much I expect the Steelers to mix up their wide receiver/tight end sets.

It should be different guys on the field a lot, but in this specific match up I hope the Steelers attack Brandon Stephens and Andre Cisco down the field early and often with Wilson and Austin to open things up for the run game. The Jets linebackers are pretty good in coverage, so it should be a good test for the two young guys to try and make a name for themselves on the outside.

Injuries, Betting, and Prediction

Jets Friday Injury Report:

The Jets haven’t announced their Friday injury report yet, but unless anything unexpected happens today it seems like their only loss will be Vera-Tucker, which we already know about. Both teams healthy for the most part heading into the season.

Steelers Friday Injury Report

I’m expecting them to be cautious and keep Herbig out if he isn’t 100% so him not playing wouldn’t surprise me. Now what would surprise me is if Cam Heyward doesn’t play. His comments after practice today are the first time I thought there’s a chance he might not be out there. I guess I understand where Cam’s coming from after the way he played last year but man, after all his comments in the offseason and throughout his career about what being a Steeler means, it would be both frustrating and disappointing to see him hold out.

Betting

Per DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday 3pm EST, Steelers -3 (-105), O/U 37.5 (the lowest O/U of all of Week 1, of course).

Lines I like:

• Steelers -3 -105 (Have to, it’s Week 1)
• Justin Fields U 26.5 Pass Att -110 (I got it at 27.5 early in the week)
• Braelon Allen O 28.5 Rush Yards -114
• Jaylen Warren O 51.5 Rush Yards -114
• Darnell Washington Anytime TD +1100 (Worth a sprinkle)

Prediction

From my record prediction article back in May, I have the Steelers winning this game 20-13. Now that was before the Steelers signed Rodgers, Ramsey, and Jonnu, so I won’t shy away from saying my confidence in the team has grown since then. That being said, it’s Week 1, hardly any starters played in the preseason, and we have no reason to believe Arthur Smith’s offense is any different from last year yet.

In the grand scheme of things though, there is absolutely zero reason the Steelers should lose this game. They’re more talented at every single position across the board outside of running back. They’re going up against a whole new regime and a new quarterback in their first game together, their best offensive lineman is out, and they lack offensive weapons on the outside. One game changer could be Cam Heyward sitting out, but even with his comments today I still expect him to out there.

This should be a dominant performance, but until we see otherwise you have to expect the Steelers to play a close game. And because of that, I’ll stick with my original score prediction. TJ Watt will record two sacks, Slay, JPJ, and Ramsey will shut down Garrett Wilson, and DeShon Elliot picks off Justin Fields, matching his interception total from last year in the first game. It takes Aaron Rodgers three quarters to get going but he makes big throws in the fourth to keep drives alive, and Jaylen Warren’s coming out party happens, rusing for over a 100 yards and icing the game late in the fourth.

Steelers 20, Jets 13. 1-0. Here We go.