Stat projections are not for the faint of heart, especially predicting NFL stats. It’s nearly impossible to account for every variable that could happen to every team around the league, and even the best in the business (PFF, ESPN, Warren Sharp, etc.) who use precise data modeling and predictions struggle. That’s why, for this exercise of predicting the Steelers 2025 stats, I’m going to go off the gut (with the exception of one player, partially).

This is an exercise I haven’t done before, and while using heavy data analysis would be the more “professional” and “accurate” way to go about it, I find this way to be more fun. If you don’t like that then fine, carry on with your day, but I’m confident in how much I know football, and even more confident in how well I know the Steelers.

Aaron Rodgers: 358/525, 3,702 Yards, 28 Touchdowns, 7 Interceptions / 34 Rush Attempts, 138 Yards, 1 Touchdown

The four-year streak of not having 25 passing touchdowns comes to an end for the Steelers. These numbers come down to two main reasons; 1) Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback we’ve had since 2018 Ben, and 2) The Steelers will be an average offense in 2025. The run game will be improved and will be consistent throughout the year, which will help Rodgers execute at a higher level with play action and in the red zone.

I have the yardage higher than most would expect because of the late season gauntlet the Steelers have again this year. I think they’ll get behind and be forced to throw more, but Rodgers will have a bit more success in these scenarios than what we’re used to. Interceptions are low because that’s what Rodgers has always done, and is Tomlin’s top priority on offense (sadly).

Jaylen Warren: 252 Carries, 1,168 Yards, 8 Touchdowns / 41 Receptions, 312 Yards, 2 Touchdowns

Because I’ve been so vocal about Jaylen Warren this offseason, he’s the one player I did little bit of analysis for. Doing very simple math from the 2023 and 2024 seasons (excluded his rookie year because of how little carries he got), I predicted his 2025 rushing yards by multiplying his average yards per carry (4.74) by the average number of carries Najee Harris had the last two years (268). That comes out to 1,270, but I brought it down because I do think they’ll try to keep Warren fresh by mixing in Johnson and Gainwell a decent amount.

I started doing a prediction regression model for Warren, but I realized that doesn’t fit with the rest of this article. Might as well stick with the gut. I’m still very bullish on Warren though both in real life and in fantasy, and as long as he doesn’t lose the football (like he did against Carolina in the preseason) I have hard time seeing Warren not have a career year. Probably at the top of my list of players I’m most excited to watch this year.

Kaleb Johnson: 92 Carries, 480 yards, 4 Touchdowns / 10 Receptions, 84 Yards

It was really good to see Johnson improve as the preseason went on, but he still has some ways to go in my opinion. His first step lacks explosiveness, he doesn’t look comfortable as a pass catcher, and he bounced far too many runs outside.

On the flip side though he displayed he has good vision as a runner finding cut back lanes in Arthur Smith’s zone scheme, and he did flash some power and speed once he got going around the edge in open field. If Johnson continues to improve these predictions could definitely be low, especially in the touchdown department if he ends up being the Steelers goal line back.

Kenneth Gainwell: 74 Carries, 276 Yards / 30 Receptions, 218 Yards, 1 Touchdown

Not a ton to discuss with Gainwell except for the fact that he should have a roll as receiver out of the backfield. He showed it in Philly, reportedly displayed it in camp, and I have no reason to believe he won’t do the same in the regular season.

One thing I do want to see though from Gainwell is a boost to the Steelers kick return game. It was absolutely abysmal last year, and of now he’s listed as one of the two starting returners along with Warren. Kaleb Johnson looked way too similar to 2024 Cordarrelle Patterson when he returned kicks this preseason, so hopefully they were just preserving Gainwell.

DK Metcalf: 76 Receptions, 1,082 Yards, 8 Touchdowns

Aaron Rodgers has always been known to excel at getting his best receiver the ball, and I don’t think that changes in 2025. After a slight down year in a crowded receiver room in Seattle last year, Metcalf now completely owns the room in Pittsburgh.

I have him just below (14.2) his career yards per catch (14.4) because I think Rodgers gets him a little involved more in the quick passing game. I also have him charting the third most touchdowns in a season for his career. Him, Freiermuth, and Washington will be the main redzone targets, and it was exciting to read how Rodgers and Metcalf’s connection in seven-shots grew throughout camp.

Roman Wilson: 31 Receptions, 402 Yards, 2 Touchdowns

A hard player to predict, it seems like Wilson did enough in the preseason to prevent the Steelers from adding another wide receiver, solidifying him as the number two outside. Will this turn into big production? I don’t think so. I liked what I saw from Wilson in the preseason, but I think he’s going to play the clear-out role a lot in this offense to open things up for the tight ends in the middle.

I have him charted at 15.7 yards/catch, so I do think he will hit some big shots down the field at times. If there’s one person I hope outperforms my projection more than anyone it’s Wilson because it would solve a lot of the Steelers problems this year and going forward.

Calvin Austin: 30 Receptions, 330 Yards, 2 Touchdowns / 4 Carries, 38 Yards

Austin is another really hard player to predict because of how long he’s been hurt. Because he’ll probably be playing catch-up leading up to the opener I can see him getting off to a slow start. This coupled with the fact that it seems like Roman Wilson will be the other receiver alongside Metcalf in two wide receiver sets may set up Austin for a slight down year compared 2024 (36/548/4).

I’m in the camp that Calvin Austin is extremely talented and can no doubt play in this league, but the Steelers scheme and loaded tight end room will likely limit the number of targets he’ll get.

Pat Freiermuth: 60 Receptions, 494 Yards, 5 Touchdowns

I have a pretty boring stat line for Muth because I think the dink and dunk game will make a return to Pittsburgh this year. It won’t be nearly the same as the Ben to Miller-Ward-Randle El/Bell-AB-Jesse James days, but I expect it to be more frequent and help convert a lot of the third and shorts Pittsburgh has struggled with over the last half-decade, and Muth is going to be a big part of it.

I have him with an average number of receptions based off his career so far, but with two other tight ends on the roster who are better downfield his yardage will take a hit. I expect him to still be one of Rodgers top redzone targets though.

Jonnu Smith: 36 Receptions, 401 Yards, 1 Touchdown

Jonnu is probably the most difficult player to predict because I really have no idea how the Steelers plan to use him. He didn’t play in the preseason, he’s not a typical tight end, and he’s not the starting tight end. He’ll be on the field a ton with the amount of 12 personnel I expect the Steelers to run, so it should come down to the amount of times Arthur Smith designs plays specifically for Jonnu.

I hope it’s a lot of stuff down the seam, screens, and deep corners that allow Jonnu to use his speed in open field and exploit mismatches on linebackers. That being said I’m probably the least confident about this projection more than anyone. I could easily see him going over or under all of these lines.

Darnell Washington: 28 Receptions, 288 Yards, 6 Touchdowns

I know – the six-touchdown mark for Washington seems high, but I think this is the year he becomes their top redzone threat. Rodgers is too smart to not utilize such a weapon in the red zone, and that combined with a lighter, more nimble Darnell should provide endless defensive mismatches between him, DK, and Muth.

Now of course these projections are if everyone stays healthy which we know won’t happen, but in this perfect world the above the receiving stats charted out above are 3,611 Yards, 340 Receptions, and 27 Touchdowns. So, the remaining yards, receptions, and one touchdown will go to a combo of Miller/Heyward/Skowronek/etc.

Now, how does this compare to last year?

• 2024 Passing: 321/499, 3,264 Yards, 21 Touchdowns
• 2025 Projection: 358/525, 3,702 Yards, 28 Touchdowns
• Difference: +37 Completions/+26 Att., +438 Yards, +7 Touchdowns

• 2024 Rushing: 533 Rushes, 2,166 Yards, 14 Touchdowns
• 2025 Projection: 456 Rushes, 2,100 Yards, 13 Touchdowns
• Difference: -67 Rushes, -66 Yards, -1 Touchdown

For the rushing portion I’m sure there will be some additional carries here and there that go to random people, but overall I think the Steelers run the ball less because they have more success in the passing game, but also are more efficient running the ball behind an improved O-Line and being more comfortable in year two of Arthur Smith’s scheme.

My 5,802 total yardage projection for 2025 would have placed the Steelers 13th overall in total yardage in 2024 (they were 23rd last year). With that there’s two things I’ll say. First, I know this is generous based off what we’ve seen the last half decade. It’s bold in a lot of ways, from passing touchdowns to the rushing efficiency. At the same time though, I think this is close to their ceiling, and is genuinely possible if everything goes right.

Second, and even though it’s wild to say, I think their defense is going to be even better than last year and will give the offense ample opportunities to score in good field position. There will be three and outs, no doubt, but with a quarterback like Rodgers the offense should be better at adjusting mid-game and sustaining decently long drives rather than just ramming their head into the same wall over and over again and the defense has to go right back out on the field. It will finally be a more team effort rather than praying for the defense to save a game.

Am I bias Steeler fan that wants them to do well? Absolutely, and I’m really excited to watch them have a decent quarterback this year. But at the same time, I know this team better than most people who you hear in the media talk about them. There’s too much on the line for this team for them not to figure it out offensively. There’s no question there will still be ugly games that we’ll rely on the defense for, but I think as fans our eyes will bleed a little less year with Rodgers under center.