Growing up I was never really the biggest fan of mock drafts because of all the trades that happen during the draft. Over time though I’ve realized it’s not a bad exercise to understand the multiple options a team could have at their slotted selection, or one they move to. Either way this is the week where we normally get a lot of information, half of which is usually very telling and the rest of it being a complete smokescreen. I will say I have less of an idea this year of who the Steelers will pick than normal, but I am confident on what they should not do in a few areas.

This mock is going to be prediction based, who I think the Steelers will pick, but I’m also going to include my own takes on what I wish they would or shouldn’t do with some of the picks as well. At the conclusion of the article I also do a simmed draft on how I hope the draft will turn out for the Steelers. In a draft with very little blue-chip players it’ll be interesting to see how things play out before the Steelers are on the clock on 21, but for now let’s get into it.

Disclaimer: The first three picks of this draft were written on Monday, 4/21, and do not consider Tomlin’s comments while speaking to the media today.

Round 1, Pick 21: Shedeur Sanders, QB Colorado

I will immediately begin by saying this is the player I want to see the ABSOLUTE LEAST at 21. And there are a lot of reasons why. I’m not going to come out and say I watch every single college football game like I do the NFL, but I watch a decent amount of college football and with Colorado being prime time TV (no pun intended) in recent years I’ve watched a lot of Shedeur Sanders games. There was not one time watching him where I thought “woah what a play” or “wow what a throw.” The only wow-factor in their games was Travis Hunter making Sanders look much better than he actually is. He has average arm strength (maybe even below average on deep balls), holds the ball too long, and is stunningly unathletic. He was able to get away with running around in the pocket to extend plays in the Big 12, but he’s not quick or fast enough to get away with it in the league.

Don’t care or believe what I have to say? Totally fair, I’m only a few months into this sports writing stuff. But if you want a full breakdown on Sanders game from two people in the Steelers world who agree with me and have much more experience, I advise you to check out the articles Alex Kozora and Derrick Bell wrote. Sanders possesses no elite traits and has too many issues to fix, especially in the non-QB friendly system the Steelers run. He’s a decently accurate thrower and seems to be able to get through progressions well, but his lack of arm talent is going to cost him in the NFL. A play that I haven’t been able to get out of my head is the pick-six he threw against Nebraska (seen at 3:20 of that video). That’s against a bottom-tier Big 10 team, so it’s all too easy picturing that being the Ravens.

If all these negatives, why do I think the Steelers will draft him? Because that’s just how things have been lately. They really don’t know what to do or how to do it when it comes to the quarterback position. In other words, they’re lost – both in the sense of talent evaluation and with what exactly they want. Mitch Trubisky? Horrendous. Kenny Pickett? No business being a first-round pick. Rudolph? Never given a fair chance. Tomlin harps about mobility at the end of last year and Rooney says their goal is for Fields or Wilson to return? Fields signs elsewhere and they let Wilson walk. Give up a 2nd and sign DK long-term because you’re so confident Aaron Rodgers will give you one year? Now it seems like he might be leaning retirement. I don’t know, maybe this is just what happens when you don’t have to worry about a position for twenty years, but for whatever reason I’ve lost hope in them not making the same mistake twice in three years.

You want a more analytical reason? Take look at how the draft shakes out. If they don’t trade back and end up not taking a quarterback at 21, there is no chance Sanders, Dart, and Milroe get to them at pick 83. They all might be gone by the Colts pick at 46. To be clear, I would be 100% okay, and even happy if that’s how things play out. This is not the year to pick a quarterback early, 2026 is. That said, I just think they feel too much pressure with the Rodgers hole they’ve dug themselves in. You also can’t forget that Sanders checks the pre-draft visit box, and of course how much Tomlin loves players that are legacies, especially the son of the biggest football mouth on planet earth. Ultimately, no matter how much people believe it or not, Tomlin has the final say in their picks, and I think it’ll be another disappointment this year. (side note, my remote will also go through my TV if they pick a running back in the first round again).

Per Scott Barrett:

Per Warren Sharp:

My preferred moves: 1) Trade back into the late first or early second, 2) Derrick Harmon DL Oregon, 3) Kenneth Grant DL Michigan, 4) Nick Emmanwori S South Carolina, 5) Jalen Milroe QB Alabama

Round 3, Pick 83: Joshua Farmer, DL Florida State

Full disclosure, I’m an offense guy – played on that side of the ball growing up and I’m big into fantasy football so I’m not going to sit here and tell you I know everything about the defensive line. What I do know is that the Steelers like to draft defensive lineman that possess good size and length, which Joshua Farmer has (6’3, 305 lbs, 35in arm length). To go along with that, the Steelers have also leaned toward drafting a more athletic defensive interior in recent years (2022 Demarvin Leal had 7.75 Relative Athletic Score (RAS), 2023 Keanu Benton 8.90 RAS Score, 2023 Logan Lee 9.20 RAS Score). Farmer, who put up a 7.89 RAS Score, seems to far more aligned with what the Steelers are looking for compared to other defensive lineman who they also had pre-draft visits with and are projected to go in this range (JJ Pegues 4.40 RAS Score, Jamaree Caldwell 3.42 RAS Score).

As someone who isn’t able to watch every snap of defensive lineman film I’m looking for draft trends and the above athleticism note is perhaps something we’re seeing change within the Khan regime. A few picks pre-Khan were Isaiahh Loudermilk with a 3.60 RAS Score and Isaiah Buggs with a 1.91 RAS Score. Does that mean this will be a good pick? It’s tough to be sure of anything in a mock draft, but I would lean no. Across all the scouting reports the consensus seems to be that Farmer uses and size and strength well against the run and gets a decent push off the ball using his length which helps frees him up. He has essentially zero pass rush though, struggles to move laterally, and has below average quickness and endurance. I don’t love that he played in the ACC, and though he put up solid numbers throughout the year (32 tackles, 12 solos, 8 TFL, 4 sacks) it makes me a bit nervous when you read between the lines and see what he did against above average teams:

• vs SMU: 0.5 sack (was his only tackle)
• vs Clemson: 1 tackle, 2 assists
• vs Miami: no recorded stats
• vs Notre Dame: no recorded stats

I promise I’m not trying to bash my own projections, but by drafting a quarterback in the first round they again put pressure on themselves in the third to take a defensive lineman, and Farmer may be the best that’s available. This DL class is really deep so that does help them here because in no way is Farmer a bad player, I just kind of get the same vibes from Farmer or any defensive lineman in this range as I do with Leal and Benton. Not somebody who is going to wow right away and be able to play a bunch of snaps as rookie, and will likely take 2-3 years to develop, if he ever does. I wouldn’t hate a receiver here, especially if they go Sanders (Noel, Jayden Higgins, Ayomanor). If they don’t go QB first, a shot on Tyler Shough or Will Howard wouldn’t upset me either.

Round 4, Pick 123: Bayshul Tuten, RB Virginia Tech

SCOOTIN’ TUTEN!!! I need to get some merch made for that nickname, especially if he goes to the Steelers, but this is a pick that would finally get me excited. I’ve already been vocal about how running back shouldn’t be as high a priority as they’re making out to be in this draft, but when you have nine pre-draft visitors at the position it’s essentially a lock the Steelers will take one at some point. The Hokie ran the fastest 40-time of all RBs at 4.32 and reminds me a lot of the guy we already have in the building in Jaylen Warren, which is why it’s exciting. He plays his ass off just like Warren, and at a similar build also has tremendous contact balance himself. Take a look at this highlight and tell me that doesn’t remind you of 30 consistently making plays behind our poor offensive line?

He has the game-changing speed the Steelers desperately need out of the backfield, and I think the combination of him and Warren would be pretty exciting to watch. The biggest issue with Tuten is ball security. Four fumbles in 2024 and five in 2023 is not something a team like the Steelers, especially Tomlin, wants to see with the way this team plays. Then again, Warren himself had five fumbles in three years and they took a shot on him, though as a UDFA. Others might point to receiving as an issue as he only had 81 yards last season, but the previous year he had 239 so I don’t see that as a problem. People also want to say well “he doesn’t compliment Warren well” – who cares? Since when is it a rule you need to have a bigger back paired with a smaller back? All the Brady-Belichick teams would say otherwise. Making the move for DK Metcalf gives me hope the team may begin to prioritize speed, and I predict they continue to here with one of the guys they brought in for pre-draft visit.

Round 5, Pick 156: Jaylen Reed, S Penn State

I go with Jaylen Reed here because of the interest the Steelers have shown at safety this offseason and last, and because they’re likely familiar with Reed’s game with him being in-state. Director of College Scouting Dan Colbert attended Penn State’s Pro Day and watched him work, so there’s a strong connection here. At 6’0 211 lbs Reed has good size for the safety position, and ran a very good forty at 4.49 at the combine, along with displaying some strength with 19 bench press reps.

He led Penn State with 98 tackles, which matches his profile of someone not being afraid to come into the box and make plays, a trait we know Tomlin requires of his DB’s. The negatives seem to be his head, sometimes getting lost in coverage and not being consistent in man to man. This is a fifth-round pick for a reason and is someone who would benefit greatly in learning from Minkah and Elliot, can make the team as a rookie and contribute immediately on special teams.

Round 6, Pick 185: Zah Frazier, CB UTSA

At 6’2 205, Zah Frazier fits the “avatar” mold of corners we’ve seen the Steelers look to in recent years. I’ll also continue with the trend of this mock draft – speed – which the Steelers turn to again with Frazier running a 4.38 forty. To me this is simply another developmental pick similar to Cory Trice. The size and athleticism is there, but as someone who only started 10 games in the FBS who’s already 25 he’ll have to prove it early and often.

The production in 2024 is why you would take a chance. With 6 interceptions and 9 passes defensed it’s very possible Frazier is a late bloomer and he’s figured it out. At the same time though, the limited competition in the FBS doesn’t help his case either. There was a senior personnel assistant at Frazier’s pro day so the Steelers did have eyes on him, and we know they aren’t afraid to dip into the FBS pool from time to time. The Steelers take a similar shot on the upside of Frazier here as they did on Trice two years ago in the hope they can fill their corner depth after Slay plays out his one year deal.

Round 7, Pick 229: Connor Colby, G Iowa

To wrap things up, the Steelers add some depth to the offensive line and select Connor Colby. Colby had 50 total starts at Iowa dating back to when he was a Freshman. They primarily came at RG, but there was some at LG and LT in there as well. For a line that is seriously lacking both depth and experience, the Steelers could definitely use a player like Colby.

He put up a 9.50 RAS score which is a top 100 score all time for the guard position, and is an extremely durable player to go along with it. His pros seem to be his IQ and strong hands, but his negatives – bad in pass pro, weak play strength, and high pad level – outweigh the positives by a lot, hence the last round pick. Perhaps sitting behind Seumalo for a year could prove to be beneficial and help him grow.

To summarize, my mock selections are:

• Round 1: Shedeur Sanders, QB Colorado
• Round 3: Joshua Farmer, DL Florida St
• Round 4: Bhayshul Tuten, RB Virignia Tech
• Round 5: Jaylen Reed, S Penn State
• Round 6: Zah Frazier, CB UTSA
• Round 7: Connor Colby, IOL Iowa

Again, these are my predictions for a no-trade draft as a rookie sportswriter. I wouldn’t be surprised if I’m completely off, but I did my best to include logical picks that are researched-based and fill holes the Steelers have. Moving on to a more exciting/positive take, see below what I would like to see/what I would do if I was making the selections for the Steelers via a full draft sim on Mock Draft Database:

Before even making a selection, I trade back with the Eagles:

I know the reports about this draft is that no one wants to move up, everyone wants to move back, but the Eagles have a history of making noise on draft day, and for a team that essentially has no holes I can easily see them coming up to make a move for guy they think can have an impact on their team right away (Jihaad Campbell, Mykel Williams, Will Johnson, etc) if they were to fall to 21.

For the Steelers, this means putting themselves in prime position – not only with acquiring an additional third and fourth rounder to make up for the lost second, but to put themselves ahead of the quarterback-needy teams at the beginning of the second round (Browns, Giants, Saints, Colts). It wouldn’t surprise me if the Giants moved back into the first to select Sanders, but regardless I have the Steelers taking the quarterback with the highest upside in this entire draft, Jalen Milroe.

Yes, his accuracy was not great last year along with a lot of other things as a pure thrower, but if the Steelers are going to try and compete in a division with Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow they need someone electrifying at quarterback, and Jalen Milroe has the potential to get there. He’s an unbelievable runner, probably the best athlete as a quarterback I’ve ever seen in college. They had a pro day dinner with him and both Tomlin and Khan attended his pro day so there’s a strong connection there. There’s a lot of negatives, but I find it really difficult to not take shot here, even if he sits a year behind Rodgers or Rudolph.

The extra picks allow the Steelers to add another weapon on offense in Ayomanor, take advantage of the defensive line depth by taking someone they had a pro day dinner with thirteen picks later in Broughton, and still get a fast running back they had a visit with in the fourth in Jaydon Blue. The rest of the draft is filling positional/depth holes with guys they have a small connection to (scouts at pro days), but overall I think this would be an awesome haul with a higher level of overall talent.

Do I think this or something similar will happen? I highly doubt it. As I mentioned earlier, my faith in the Steelers decision making is the lowest it’s ever been, and after hearing what Tomlin had to say about Sanders today it scares me even more they’ll end up taking him if he falls. But a kid can dream, and every person on the planet puts together a perfect scenario mock draft, so why not do it. The draft is one of my favorite weekends of the year, so I’m going to do my best to enjoy the first twenty picks before I ultimately get the air taken out of me at pick twenty one. Let me know what you think about either scenarios!