Aaron Rodgers had an interview on The Pat McAfee Show today, and we know just as much about his decision as we have since early March. It seems like retirement is much more of a possibility than most people thought, and I see his decision probably going beyond OTA’s with the way he was talking. With only two quarterbacks on their roster at the moment, the Steelers will now almost for certain draft a quarterback to fill out the roster should Rodgers retire. I’ve been vocal on Twitter (sorry, I’ll never call it X) about how that pick should not be in first round, and most definitely not be used on Shedeur Sanders. Regardless though we’ll likely see one taken at some point next weekend, and Pittsburgh can use all the help they can get in the quarterback room.

The Steelers have been one of the worst passing teams in the NFL the last three years. Coaching has been a major factor in that (Matt Canada I’m talking to you) but so has quarterback play. In this article we’re going dive into league wide passing statistics in the post-Big Ben era (last three years) to see just how bad the Steelers have been throwing the ball compared to the rest of the league. This wasn’t my favorite article to write, but it needs to be brought up so everyone can understand how quickly it needs to change.

Note: The below stats include the playoffs. I included the playoffs to try and give the Steelers a boost, as most of the teams you’ll see them near have not been to the postseason the last three years (Steelers have been twice).

Passing Touchdowns

Immediately my first thought was “how the hell did they win so many games?” We know that answer is the defense, turnovers, and TJ Watt, but it still makes you sick seeing how bad they are getting the ball in the end zone through the air. To make you feel even worse, post-elbow surgery Big Ben threw 55 touchdowns in 2020 and 2021, five more than the Steelers have over the last three years. Hopefully DK Metcalf can help change that since we know Pickens struggles to find the end zone, but DK’s 66th ranked red zone CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected) isn’t a great sign. In the red zone they need more rub routes, more Freiermuth/Washington targets, and more creativity to get Pickens and Metcalf in space with one-on-one matchups.

Completions

Completions obviously aren’t a direct indicator to passing success, but you still see the Steelers again near the bottom here. We know they throw the ball at a low rate compared to the rest of the league so this isn’t super surprising, but even when they do they still fail. Maybe don’t just chuck five go balls 40 yards down the field every game? They have to better at taking what the defense gives them, finding soft spots in the zone, and attacking the defenses weaknesses.

Completions translate to yards, so no surprise to see them this low either. What jumped out at me when looking at this graph and the previous one is Baltimore. The Ravens have the fifth-lowest completions the last three years, less than the Steelers, but are league average in total passing yards. Yes, Lamar Jackson is a huge factor there, but it shows you can be efficient without volume. How many times have we seen Mark Andrews running wide open? The Steelers need to optimize their passing scheme so receivers have space down the field instead of relying on guys to consistently make contested catches.

Passing Air Yards

A more interesting graph, we see the Steelers improve very slightly to 10th-lowest total air yards (yards the ball travels from the line of scrimmage to where it’s intended to be caught). The only reason the Steelers moved up a bit in this list is because of the aforementioned prayers they throw down the sidelines. You rarely ever see the Steelers throw a deep seem, post, or deep curl anymore, things that were Big Ben staples. These are almost required to succeed in the NFL today with the increase in Cover 2 usage. It seems like whenever they do run something similar to Pickens it almost always works, yet there’s no consistency whatsoever. I would love to see the Steelers improve here by using Pickens and Metcalf down the middle more in the deep and intermediate range. They’re two of the most physical receivers in the league who aren’t afraid of contact when making a catch.

Passing First Downs

Lastly we see the Steelers are also not good at converting first downs through the air. This is probably the most frustrating stat of them all for me. Watching them not be able to convert a 3rd and medium or 3rd and short through the air drives me crazy and it needs to change quickly. This is an area where the Steelers need a decisive and accurate quarterback to pick up yards on money downs. It always seems like their drops, bad throws, and miscommunications come on passing plays that are drawn up to get a first down. In 2024 there’s no question their receiver’s inability to get open played into this, but their overall execution both on the field and play calling has to be better. More passes on first down, more slants, and more crossers would help this team drastically.

Pittsburgh finds themselves in the bottom ten in the league in each of these passing stats, and seventh-lowest overall if you take their average. Obviously there’s a lot more stats that go into passing success, but these are the most interpretable and paint the clearest picture. They’ve been so bad passing the ball in a passing league, and I just hope Tomlin finally stops ignoring it. It’s not 2008 anymore, the run-run-pass philosophy is outdated unless your offensive line can completely dominate a game, and the Steelers don’t have that type of line.

Unfortunately I don’t see Tomlin changing his ways, especially not in 2025 with Arthur Smith still there. If they want to improve passing the ball, they’ll need to have exceptional play from their quarterback. And after hearing what Rodgers said today the Steelers have really dug themselves into a hole. Personally I do believe the Steelers passing game would improve with Rodgers, but with Mason Rudolph or a rookie from this class? No chance, it’ll be more of the same. You see who the Steelers passing game lines up with throughout these stats – the Giants, Titans, Patriots, Bears, Falcons, etc – bad football teams. They’re one TJ Watt injury away from getting their win total knocked down to the level of those teams if they don’t change right now.

Changing is easier said than done though when you don’t have a quarterback. The best possible option in my eyes? Aaron Rodgers signs for 2025, enlightens Tomlin on what at least an average passing offense should look like, and they go all in and move up in the 2026 draft to grab either Arch Manning, Drew Allar, or Garret Nussmeier (Nico Iamaleava is overrated in my opinion, and that has nothing to do with his recent forced transfer). Even sweeter would be Arthur Smith leaving and they bring in a young offensive mind to lead the offense, but I should end this article now before this dream becomes the 2022 draft nightmare all over again.